Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271133
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are expected through the end of the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon.

- The threat for precipitation will increase Friday night into
  early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

H5 analysis from earlier this evening has a longwave trough
across most of the CONUS. Within this trough, a closed low was
present over northern North Dakota into southern portions of
Manitoba. Ridging was present in the Canadian Maritimes and a
second ridge extended up the Pacific NW coast into western
portions of British Columbia. Within the longwave trough,
numerous embedded shortwaves extended from northern Mexico into
Texas. A secondary shortwave trough was present from Lake
Michigan, southeast into Ohio. Across the high plains tonight, a
weak disturbance was lifting across the Nebraska Sandhills.
Radar imagery has some precipitation returns but almost none of
this is currently hitting the surface over the northern
Sandhills. Further south, highway cameras have indicated some
snowfall south of North Platte which is currently handled with
the inherited forecast. At the surface tonight, a stationary
front extended along the front ranges of Wyoming and eastern
Colorado, south into western Texas. High pressure was the
dominant surface feature across the central plains tonight.
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight and 2 AM CT
temperatures ranged from 10 degrees at O`Neill to 28 degrees at
Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The weak upper level disturbance responsible for clouds and
precipitation aloft, will slide east of the area this morning.
By this afternoon, the stationary front, currently along the
front range of Colorado and Wyoming, will migrate into the
Panhandle and western Sandhills. Winds will take on a
southwesterly component, generally west of highway 61. For
locations east of this route, winds will be more southerly-
delaying warmer air from pushing into these areas. With respect
to highs today, snow cover, especially in the east, will hold
back highs to the mid to upper 30s. Readings will be warmest in
the west with highs reaching around 50 degrees. The warm front
will pass through the remainder of the forecast area overnight
with winds taking on a westerly component. Lows tonight will
generally be in the lower to middle 20s under mainly clear
skies. On Thursday, winds will shift to the southwest as ridging
aloft builds overhead. With snow cover expected to persist in
the northeast, readings will range from the middle 40s over the
far northeastern forecast area, to the upper 60s in SW Nebraska.
Over far southwestern Nebraska, afternoon RH will approach 20
to 25 percent Thursday afternoon. Winds will be in the 10 to 15
MPH range, leading to elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Ridging aloft will begin to break down Thursday night as a
northern stream trough lifts across the northern tier. This will
force a cold front through the forecast area Thursday night
into Friday morning. Highs Friday will range from the lower 50s
in the north to lower 60s in the south. Precipitation chances
will trend upward beginning Friday night, continuing into early
next week. West southwesterly flow aloft and a mid level front
will develop over northern Nebraska, then transition slowly
south into early next week. This will lead to a continued threat
for precipitation. As for precipitation types, temperatures
currently favor predominately rain during the day and a
rain/snow or snow ptype during the night. Current forecast
trends favor the northwest with the best chances for
accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. A few passing mid to high clouds
have been observed overnight, with no impacts to flight
category. As a low pressure system moves through the region this
evening, wind shifts will be noted at the terminals, with
potential for rapid fluctuations in direction. However, winds
are generally expected to remain light during the low passage.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie


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