Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Fair confidence in the forecast this morning. Lingering stratus will
be main forecast challenge on high temperatures today. Snow has all
but ended over north central Nebraska early this morning and any
signs of fog well to the east of forecast area. Ceilings are
beginning to lift as west to northwest winds keeping the boundary
layer mixed on the edge of the stratus deck. Increasing high clouds
will move into the Panhandle today. These clouds are associated with
mid level wave moving across Montana and North Dakota. Have left
forecast dry over the northwest. Have kept temperatures on the
cooler side with lingering cloud cover and increasing clouds to the
west and weak cold air advection across the west today. Highs
generally in the 40s with some temperatures around 50 over the

Clearing skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the
teens northwest and 20s over the remainder of western Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Northwest flow aloft transitions to southwest this weekend as an
upper ridge over the Rockies gives way to a trough. At the surface,
one lee side low treks across the central Plains as the upper ridge
flattens, while another approaches the area early next week.

Wednesday through Friday... The big warmup is still on track with
the help of downslope flow and decent mixing (to about 750hpa) Wed-
Thu. H85 temps rise to near 8-10C, resulting in widespread 50s/60s
Wed and 60s/70s Thu. The ridge axis pushes through the forecast area
early Friday with the sfc low lagging, leaving western Neb in strong
southerly flow and under the thermal ridge. With H85 temps exceeding
10C, guidance is trending warmer and have bumped highs into the 70s
once again for SW Neb (and 60s elsewhere). Mid-level moisture
increases through the day, but the better precip potential comes
later in the evening when low level forcing is maximized. Despite
dew points reaching the mid 40s, thunder threat is rather limited
having come well after peak heating.

Saturday and beyond... The bulk of the showers should be out of the
area by Sat late morning, but the next round arrives Sat night from
a strong shortwave and the second sfc low. Most of the precip should
fall as rain, but overnight lows in the lower 30s and H85 temps
dipping to around 0C may support a brief changeover to snow. Timing
and location differences between the GFS and ECM are substantial
enough for low confidence in this second system, especially with p-
type. Nevertheless, highs appear to remain seasonably cool/mild
heading into next week in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

The IFR in -RASN/low ceilings will continue moving east and exit
Ncntl Neb 10z-11z Tuesday morning.

The areas of MVFR cigs across Wrn Neb are expected to move east
also, overnight through Tuesday morning, and exit Ncntl Neb 18z-
21z Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise VFR is expected.




LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.