Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Elko, NV
000
FXUS65 KLKN 102107
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
207 PM PDT Wed Apr 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Probabilities for showers and thunderstorms begin
increasing Thursday and Friday. Better push of showers associated
with a cut off low expected Saturday and Sunday along with strong
southerly winds. Pattern remains active into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.
The region remains dry tonight with temperatures continuing to
trend warmer as a ridge of high pressure continues to move thru
the inter- mountain west. Tonight`s low temperatures will be in
the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Closed upper low moves south off shore of the west coast,
positioned off the Pacific NW coast by Thursday afternoon. Upper
flow over NV turns southwesterly in conjunction with the low
moving south and southwesterly breezes will be present during the
afternoon. Gusts generally around 20 mph expected. Increasing
instability and mid-level moisture Thursday afternoon will result
in cumulus build-ups and a 10% to 20% probability of thunderstorms
into early Thursday evening. PWATs are progged to be borderline
at around 0.50” Thursday afternoon which will likely result in a
mix of virga and brief light rain for any storms that do form. Any
rain accumulations will be less than 0.10”. Activity mostly
focused across western Humboldt County and portions of central
Nevada in and near southern Lander/Eureka Counties. Temperatures
continue to warm Thursday and daytime highs will reach the mid 60s
to mid 70s. Overnight lows will mostly be in the mid 30s to mid
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday
Friday through the weekend, another round of isolated
thunderstorms is expected Friday as an upper level low continues
to move toward the southwest. Chances for isolated storms expected
to increase to 25-45% for northern Nevada by Friday evening. By
Saturday afternoon thunderstorms give way to mostly rain showers
with precip chances increasing to 40-60% towards central Nevada
and heading northeast towards Elko County. By Sunday, the chances
for storms and showers are expected to dissipate, dropping below
20%. Precipitation is expected to fall as rain as daytime high
temperatures start off warm. Friday highs expected to be in the
60s to 70s and temperatures are expected to gradually fall from
the passing cold front with Saturday highs in the 60s, and Sunday
highs in the 50s to 60s. Lows also expected to gradually cool,
with Friday lows in the 40s, Saturday lows in the 40s to 30s, and
Sunday lows in the 30s. Breezy winds expected each afternoon with
Friday winds from the south at 20-25 mph with gusts as high as
30-35 mph. Saturday winds in the afternoon also expected from the
south at 25-30 mph with gusts as high as 35+. Sunday winds still
breezy from the west, but at 10-15 mph.
Monday through Wednesday, slightly drier weather conditions
expected in the early week, however, by Tuesday evening into
Wednesday, models are showing moderate confidence that another low
pressure system moves in over the western U.S. coming from the
north over Canada. Chances for storms are expected to continue for
Nevada with Monday chances below 20% for eastern Nevada, but then
increase to 20-35% over northeastern Nevada Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures are still expected to continue to
gradually cool as the second low pressure system continues to
bring more cooler air. Monday highs expected in the 50s and 60s,
with Tuesday highs in the 40s to 50s, and Wednesday highs in the
low 40s to 50s with some parts in the 30s. Monday lows expected to
be in the 20s to 30s, with Tuesday and Wednesday lows in the 20s.
Westerly winds expected in the afternoon all three days at 15-20
mph with gusts as high as 25 mph.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next
24 hour period with light winds below 10 kts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain currently resides
in action stage with a river flood advisory in effect until
further notice. As temperatures continue to trend warmer over the
next few days, rising flows will continue on all regional
waterways. The Humboldt River at Comus and Martin Creek near
Paradise Valley are both currently forecast by the River Forecast
Center to also move into action stage by the Friday/Saturday time
frame.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
92/97/97