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000
FXUS65 KABQ 142055
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
255 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Strong to damaging southwest to west winds and dangerous critical
fire weather conditions are expected across much of central and
eastern NM Monday and Tuesday. The strongest wind speeds will focus
over the south-central mountains Monday then over the northern
mountains Monday night into Tuesday. Isolated showers and storms are
likely in the northern mountains along a cold front that will race
across the state from west to east Monday. Temperatures climb
Wednesday and Thursday as winds trend lighter. However, a backdoor
front will decrease temperatures and increase moisture across
eastern NM late week, helping to mitigate fire weather concerns. A
few showers and storms are possible in the east as well, but
widespread precipitation appears unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Closed low over central CA will continue to drift south and
southwest tonight and Monday, pushing a strong and dry cold front
through western NM Monday morning. This front will result in gusty
winds starting earlier than the typical mixing that usually takes
place during the late morning. Most areas in western NM will start
gusting around sunrise with areas farther east to follow an hour or
two later. Sustained winds between 30 to 40 mph with gusts as high
as 55 to 60 mph will be common for much of Monday along with patchy
blowing dust, especially east of the central mountain chain.
Isolated showers associated with this system will be confined to
near the CO border and along the west slopes of the Tusas and
northern Sangre Cristo mountains Monday afternoon and evening.
Strong winds continue on the backside of the low into the overnight
hours Monday as the low deepens as it crosses over the Southern
Rockies and races northeastward into southwest NE. High temperatures
will cool behind the front on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Strong post-frontal winds will continue to blow along and east of
the central mountain chain early on Tuesday. 50-60kt winds at 700mb
over the crest of the Sangre de Cristo mountains will likely
generate mountain wave activity that could impact I-25 between Las
Vegas and Raton. Winds will spread south into the central highlands
and adjacent plains during the mid to late morning, potentially
creating some patchy blowing dust. Winds will drop off quickly in
the afternoon as the upper-low exits into the central plains. A
typical spring breeze prevails Wednesday as a very weak shortwave
moves overhead. Rising heights combined with a dry airmass will help
temps climb to some of the highest values of the season thus far mid-
week. NBM probs show a high likelihood (>70%) that temps will reach
at least 80F along the middle RGV and at least 90F in Roswell on
Thursday. Northeastern NM is the only location that will miss out on
this Spring warmth thanks to a powerful trough over the southern
Canadian Plains that will send a cold front southward down the high
plains into the eastern part of New Mexico. The initial front likely
won`t be moist enough for more than a few clouds, but a reinforcing
push Thursday night then again Friday night will increase precip.
chances along and east of the central mountain chain. Currently, the
forecast is looking rather cloudy across the east during this late
week timeframe which would inhibit the potential for afternoon
storms. However, if things trend clearer we can expect increased
storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail areawide through Monday morning. West and
southwest winds increase somewhat today, peaking during the late
afternoon with gusts to near 30 kt possible at KGUP and KLVS.
Winds aloft increase overnight with widespread strong to very
strong and gusty west and southwest winds developing for most
locations near to several hours after sunrise Monday. These strong
winds could result in patchy blowing dust and visibility
restrictions for the KROW terminal Monday afternoon as southwest
winds are progged to gust to near 45 kt. The strong winds start to
gradually subside toward sunset Monday but are forecast to remain
brisk to locally strong Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER MONDAY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM...

Monday will be a critical fire weather day for much of the forecast
area thanks to a mainly dry Pacific cold frontal passage. This front
will plow into western NM around sunrise Monday, progressing
eastward to near the Rio Grande Valley around noon. Then the front
moves east of the central mountain chain during the early afternoon
hours. Wind gusts between 45 to 55 mph with patchy blowing dust will
be common most areas. Temperatures trend cooler behind the front for
central and western NM Monday, spreading into eastern NM Tuesday.
Eastern New Mexico becomes the focus for critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday with strong west and northwest winds continuing
on the backside of the upper low associated with the cold front.
Weather models now keep west winds going into Wednesday, possibly
leading to another critical fire weather day for the northeast
highlands and northeast plains. Breezy conditions are forecast to
continue Thursday and Friday but remain below critical wind
thresholds. A strong backdoor cold front remains in the forecast to
move into eastern NM for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  58  37  68 /   0  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  57  28  68 /   0  20  10   0
Cuba............................  35  56  34  63 /   0  10  10   0
Gallup..........................  31  57  29  68 /   0  10   0   0
El Morro........................  31  53  31  63 /   0   5   0   0
Grants..........................  30  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  34  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  44  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  36  58  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  32  63  28  72 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  40  66  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  30  53  25  60 /   0  10  10   0
Los Alamos......................  43  58  36  64 /   0  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  42  59  35  65 /   0   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  54  34  60 /   0   5   5   0
Red River.......................  30  51  26  57 /   0  10   5   0
Angel Fire......................  31  52  24  57 /   0   5   5   0
Taos............................  34  59  32  66 /   0   5   5   0
Mora............................  39  60  34  64 /   0   5   0   0
Espanola........................  39  66  38  72 /   0   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  44  60  36  67 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  42  63  36  70 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  66  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  46  68  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  43  70  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  69  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  41  72  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  45  68  41  73 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  41  71  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  44  69  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  42  71  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  46  63  41  68 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  45  67  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  46  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  58  39  63 /   0   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  61  38  66 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  40  63  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  40  61  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  43  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  42  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  53  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  63  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  68  36  68 /   0   0   5   0
Raton...........................  37  69  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  36  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  62  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  48  76  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  46  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  48  78  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  47  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  53  82  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  53  84  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  80  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  55  87  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  51  77  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  52  75  42  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-106-
123>126.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ104-125-
126.

Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ208-220>223-
227>229.

High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
for NMZ214-215-223-229-233-237.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM Monday to midnight MDT Monday night
for NMZ224>226-239-240.

Wind Advisory from noon Monday to midnight MDT Monday night for
NMZ233>238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33