280
FXUS65 KABQ 111148 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Today sees the best chances for scattered to numerous
showers and storms for the eastern two-thirds of northern and
central NM. A few of these storms could become strong to severe,
producing lightning, hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours.
Drier conditions push in from the west Sunday, with showers and
storms holding on the longest through northeastern NM Sunday
evening. Scattered showers and storm chances return over northern
and central NM Monday and Tuesday afternoon as well, and likely
Wednesday as well. The question is how long will shower and storm
chances last into the latter half of next week?

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Active weather will continue today as a 565dm H5 low near Las Vegas
shifts east and interacts with moist southeasterly flow across NM.
Large-scale ascent associated with a broad 70 to 80 kt speed max
aloft will spread over low level convergence along a surface front
draped across central NM. Scattered showers and isolated storms are
expected to develop before sunrise today around the RGV then spread
northeast across the central mt chain throughout the day. A stable
airmass in place over eastern NM this morning with widespread low
stratus and patchy fog will limit surface-based instability
initially. However, that will change along the western periphery of
the airmass while a dryline-type scenario approaches from the west
and allows stronger forcing with surface-based instability to spread
east. The latest SPC convective outlook has a large `Marginal Risk`
area from near ABQ and Santa Fe southeastward to Roswell today. The
main threat will be large hail an isolated severe wind gusts with
the strongest storms. The QPF pattern suggests storms will organize
into linear segments from southwest to northeast with cells training
over the same areas thru this evening. This will lead to bands of
higher QPF with a large disparity between folks who pick up more
than 0.50" and those who receive almost nothing. This will be
especially true around the RGV and central mt chain before storms
organize upstream into a large area of rain across northeast NM by
tonight. The latest WPC QPF shows widespread amounts in excess of 1"
over northeast NM with a `Marginal Risk` for excessive rainfall in
place. Meanwhile, western NM will remain very dry and breezy today
with temps slightly below normal while eastern NM is cool and wet.

By late tonight, the upper low will have moved into southern CO with
widespread low clouds and patchy fog continuing across eastern NM
thru late Sunday morning. Rain and isolated storms may linger thru
sunrise as well around the Caprock of east-central NM. The focus
will then shift to afternoon showers and storms developing over the
higher terrain and northeast NM in the wake of the departing upper
low. This activity will move quickly southeast and may produce small
hail along with brief rain and localized strong winds thru late day.
Max temps will still be 5 to 10F below normal and blustery northwest
winds will make it feel even cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Sunday night convection dies down over the northeastern
portion of NM with clearing conditions heading into Monday morning.
Outflow winds from convection over northeastern NM will likely
produce some gusty winds reaching as far as the central highlands
and Estancia Valley early Monday morning. Monday sees NM between the
exiting upper low to the east and a weak ridging pattern ahead of
the next upper low off the southern CA coast. Numerical model
guidance continues to favor enough mid-level moisture to generate
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over parts of central and
northern NM Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Small hail, gusty winds
and lightning will be the main hazard from any of these storms.

The extended portion of the forecast for Wednesday and beyond
remains uncertain. Numerical model guidance continues to resolve
multiple scenarios regarding how the upper low from the southern CA
coastline phases with a trough digging down the Intermountain West.
Near equal numbers of ensemble members have the trough closing off
over AZ and spending more time over the Desert Southwest compared
with a more progressive pattern. The first scenario would favor
continued cooler and wetter conditions over NM with a backdoor
frontal boundary bringing additional low-level moisture ahead of it
into NM. The more progressive scenario would see the trough stay
open and track eastward into TX by Thursday with drier air pushing
in from the west and bringing a relatively quick end to
precipitation chances over NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Active weather will continue to impact the airspace the next 24
hours with showers, storms, low stratus decks, mt obscurations,
icing, and turbulence. Currently, widespread MVFR with local IFR
along and east of the central mt chain will give way to showers
and storms after sunrise. Some of these storms may become strong
after 1pm in the area from near ABQ to Santa Fe southeast across
the plains to near Roswell. Hail, severe wind gusts, and heavy
rainfall are possible. Storms will slide across eastern NM thru
the evening while evolving into a larger area of rain with
embedded storms thru the overnight. Widespread MVFR cigs are also
likely to develop again across the east with patchy IFR vsbys.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

There are no critical fire weather concerns for the next 7 days
outside elevated conditions today in the West Central Range and
Basin. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely for areas along and
east of the central mt chain thru tonight with light snow accums in
the northern high terrain above 10kft. A cool and unsettled weather
pattern may persist thru the middle of next week for northern and
eastern NM with daily rounds of showers and storms possible. There
are big model differences now by late next week so forecast
confidence deteriorates significantly beyond Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  41  72  43 /  30  20  20   0
Dulce...........................  64  35  66  30 /  90  20  50   5
Cuba............................  66  41  64  37 /  70  20  40   5
Gallup..........................  69  32  70  36 /   5   0  20   0
El Morro........................  66  35  65  39 /   5   0  20   0
Grants..........................  71  35  70  36 /  10   5  20   0
Quemado.........................  70  36  68  39 /   0   0  20   0
Magdalena.......................  73  44  70  45 /  20   0  20   0
Datil...........................  69  38  66  42 /   5   0  20   0
Reserve.........................  75  35  75  36 /   0   0  10   0
Glenwood........................  79  46  79  50 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  56  34  59  31 /  90  20  70  10
Los Alamos......................  60  41  62  43 /  80  40  50  10
Pecos...........................  56  41  62  40 /  90  50  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  55  36  55  39 /  90  50  70  20
Red River.......................  50  30  52  30 /  90  50  90  20
Angel Fire......................  50  31  54  27 /  80  60  70  20
Taos............................  62  34  63  32 /  80  60  50  10
Mora............................  53  35  60  35 /  90  60  50  10
Espanola........................  69  43  68  40 /  80  40  40  10
Santa Fe........................  62  42  63  43 /  80  50  40  10
Santa Fe Airport................  66  44  67  41 /  80  40  30  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  48  72  50 /  70  30  20   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  49  74  48 /  60  20  20   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  48  76  48 /  50  20  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  50  73  48 /  60  20  20   0
Belen...........................  77  46  77  44 /  40  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  72  49  74  47 /  70  30  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  75  47  76  44 /  50  10  20   0
Corrales........................  73  49  75  48 /  60  20  20   0
Los Lunas.......................  75  48  76  45 /  50  10  20   0
Placitas........................  69  46  69  48 /  70  30  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  72  48  73  48 /  60  20  20   0
Socorro.........................  82  51  81  50 /  10   5  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  41  63  45 /  80  40  30   5
Tijeras.........................  65  43  67  45 /  70  30  30   5
Edgewood........................  64  41  67  40 /  80  40  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  67  41  69  37 /  70  40  20   0
Clines Corners..................  59  40  64  38 /  80  50  20  10
Mountainair.....................  70  41  69  42 /  50  20  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  71  43  69  41 /  40  20  20   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  48  75  49 /  30  10  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  69  44  68  44 /  40  20  20   0
Capulin.........................  52  39  59  39 /  90  70  80  20
Raton...........................  54  40  64  38 /  90  60  70  20
Springer........................  55  41  65  38 /  90  60  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  40  64  38 /  90  70  30  10
Clayton.........................  59  45  68  46 /  80  70  60  30
Roy.............................  54  44  66  43 /  90  80  50  20
Conchas.........................  61  50  73  45 /  90  90  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  60  48  70  43 /  80  70  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  62  49  75  46 /  80  80  30  20
Clovis..........................  64  51  78  50 /  80  70  20  10
Portales........................  65  51  80  48 /  80  70  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  64  51  77  46 /  80  70  10  10
Roswell.........................  74  58  86  55 /  50  40   5   0
Picacho.........................  68  50  78  47 /  40  20  10   0
Elk.............................  71  47  77  45 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42