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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
813 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions are expected today. A backdoor cold
front drops south of the area late this afternoon through
tonight, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday
night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as
low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the
Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Thursday...

A backdoor cold front continues to move inland this evening with
gusty E winds to ~20 mph possible behind the front (gusts to 25 mph
possible along the coast). This front is expected to make it to
central NC by late tonight. Winds becoming NE/ENE area- wide in the
wake of the front. Temps as of 8 PM ranged from the mid 70s SW to
the lower 50s NE. Temps will quickly drop into the 50s after the
FROPA this evening and forecast lows range from the upper 40s across
the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck to the lower 50s elsewhere
(warmest across the SW). In addition, marine stratus will continue
to overspread the entire area overnight with the onshore flow behind
the front. Some model guidance is hinting at the potential for some
patchy fog across the SE VA/NE NC coastline overnight (after
midnight). Confidence is low for this (given winds of 8-10 mph), but
cannot rule it out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Strong low pressure tracks from the Canadian Prairies to
Ontario/Quebec today through Friday, pushing a stronger cold
front toward the region (which will approach from the NW). The
backdoor front currently over the area will try to retreat back
to the north during the day on tomorrow as that stronger cold
front approaches. The temperature forecast will largely depend
on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly the low
stratus burns off). Have continued to trend the forecast cooler
(especially near the immediate Atlantic coast and on the
Eastern Shore) where temps likely won`t get out of the 60s.
Temps may struggle to reach 60F in/near Ocean City. Still think
it warms well into the mid to upper 70s across interior srn VA
and NE NC. The greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to
temps on Friday remains near the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where
model solutions still range from the 60s to mid 70s).

Rain chances will return, though not until later Friday afternoon.
Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit
more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be
focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the
backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east, though
still cannot rule out a stray rumble of thunder further north
late Friday afternoon/evening due to increasing elevated
instability. There is a low-end, Marginal threat for severe
storms across far SW portions of the area (Mecklenburg County),
but again this will depend on how far north the front can
retreat. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat with any
stronger storms.

This is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate
rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing barely
.10-.25" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch. The
front likely moves south of the FA by the middle of Saturday
morning, and isolated to perhaps scattered showers will likely
linger over the area through that time (and potentially Sat aftn
across far SE VA/NE NC...although PoPs are only 20% given the
expected lack of coverage). We should see at least partial
clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn as drier
air filters in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat
are in the upper 60s-lower 70s (although it may be cooler if
clouds/showers linger longer than expected...which seems most
likely across srn portions of the area).

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s (lower 40s for
typically cooler locations). On Sunday, a southern stream low
pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states
and into the Carolinas. This means that rain chances will
return, potentially by Sunday afternoon across the southern half
of the forecast area. Temperatures will likely be cooler across
southern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds and
increasing rain chances) with highs only in the lower 60s
(potentially even upper 50s in spots). The northern 2/3rds of
the forecast area will see highs in the lower to mid 60s (cooler
across the Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

The system deepens offshore Sunday night into Monday. With rain
chances continuing into Sunday night and early Monday
(especially south). The main forecast challenge lies in
figuring out how far north the rain will get, but the trend with
the 12z suite of models has been to keep the deepest moisture
just south of the local area. Rain chances linger across
southern portions of the area potentially into Monday afternoon.
Temperatures on Monday will be a similar story compared to
Sunday with northern portions of the area warmer than the
southern 1/3rd of the CWA. High pressure briefly builds over the
area Tue AM before another system brings shower chances to the
area by Wednesday. Although it will be cool Tuesday morning,
temps should rebound nicely during the day as the high moves
offshore and winds become southerly. The cold front crosses the
area likely mid day Wednesday with cooler air filtering back
into the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 805 PM EDT Thursday...

A backdoor cold front continues to push inland this evening with
E/NE 8-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt this evening. Winds diminish to
~5 kt late tonight before becoming ESE 5-10 kt Fri afternoon.
Behind the front, an IFR marine stratus layer has developed and
begun pushing inland along the coast. This IFR stratus layer
will continue to spread inland overnight with IFR CIGs at all
terminals by 6-8z. IFR CIGs have already overspread ORF and will
likely impact PHF/ECG by 2-3z. RIC/SBY are lower confidence
before 8z with IFR CIGs potentially arriving earlier than
expected. IFR/LIFR CIGs linger into Fri morning before improving
to MVFR by mid-late morning. Clouds linger through the day Fri
with VFR/MVFR CIGs. Some model guidance is hinting at some
marine fog pushing onshore at ORF overnight between 4-10z. As
such, IFR VIS is also possible here during this time. Have used
a TEMPO for now given the lower confidence. Finally, scattered showers
move in from W to E late Fri afternoon into Fri night.

Outlook: A stronger cold front arrives from the NW and crosses
the area late Friday/Friday night with scattered showers and
isolated, embedded storms. Rain chances generally end after
Saturday morning, but return later Sunday into early Monday as
low pressure passes through the Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...

The backdoor cold front has pushed through all of the waters
now, with strong pressure rises of ~6mb/6hr pushing in from the
NE. The winds over the northern coastal waters are from the NE
gusting up to 30 kt (with seas to 6-8 ft). Farther south, winds
are from the ENE at 15-20kt gusting to ~25kt down into the
southern VA coastal waters as well as the lower Bay/lower James.
High res models show the winds remaining elevated for about 3-5
hrs and given the pattern (sfc high pressure to our NE),
decided to raise SCAs across the lower Bay/lower James/and
Coastal waters from Cape Charles to the VA- NC border.
Elsewhere, held off on any headlines, with the surge expected to
be more marginal and shorter in duration (though will need to
monitor trends this evening). The winds diminish overnight to
10-15kt, with the SCAs across the lower Bay/James dropping off
after 1-4am. The SCAs remain in effect into at least Friday
morning for the coastal waters with seas staying elevated at 4-6
ft.

Another cold front will move through the region late Fri night into
Sat. N winds will follow the second front but at this time it
appears that winds will be below SCA levels.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/JKP
NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AM/LKB