411
FXUS61 KALY 111056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
656 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering showers mainly west of the Hudson will largely
diminish by daybreak, with mostly dry weather expected Saturday.
Additional scattered showers will develop Saturday afternoon,
with western areas again favored to see light rainfall through
the day, before showers spread east into Sunday. Cool
temperatures are expected to continue through the Mother`s Day
weekend, followed by warmer but unsettled weather into the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 0700 AM EDT, light rain showers continue across
the southwestern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, as well
as a persistent batch of light rain extending from the nortthern
Taconics across the Albany-Troy area and into the Helderbergs.
Showers around the Capital District should dissipate over the
next few hours, while those farther west will begin to increase
in coverage later this morning. Largely overcast skies have
persisted across much of the region, however substantial
clearing across portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern
Taconics, and Litchfield Hills allowed for areas of dense fog to
develop. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect across
these areas where travelers may encounter sudden visibility
reductions through 8 AM EDT. Forecast otherwise remains on
track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [435 AM EDT]...A departing upper trough will
continue to support scattered rain showers within a region of
deformation flow to the east of Lake Ontario, reaching into the
western Adirondacks through the remainder of the overnight
period. A few additional light showers may develop in areas of
terrain east of the Hudson before moving into the Hudson Valley,
but these showers will be brief and light. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue for most, although
parts of northwestern Connecticut, the southern Berkshires, and
southern Mid-Hudson Valley may see a sunny start before clouds
increase later. Areas of fog are possible in clearer spots,
especially in sheltered valleys, but will dissipate quickly
following sunrise.

Following morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s, temperatures
will remain seasonably cool, reaching afternoon highs in the 50s
in high terrain and low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Brief
upper ridging will keep most of the region dry, but an upper
low digging to the southeast will approach from the Great Lakes,
resulting in increasing coverage of rain showers through the
afternoon for areas west of the Hudson. Scattered to numerous
rain showers will spread eastward through tonight as the core
of the upper low moves overhead by Sunday morning. Overnight
temperatures again fall to overnight lows in the upper 30s in
high terrain and low to mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will pass overhead and continue eastward over New
England on Mother`s Day. Resulting showers may linger into the
morning on the western flank of the circulation, however
coverage will decrease into the afternoon as the feature
continues eastward over the Gulf of Maine. A brief dry break
will then last through Sunday night as heights rise aloft behind
the upper low. Temperatures remain cool beneath the upper low,
with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s in
high terrain and mid to upper 50s at lower elevations, and
overnight lows dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the
region.

As upper ridging flattens over the region, a warm front will
approach from the west on Monday, bringing increasing chances
for rain showers into the afternoon. Temperatures will moderate
as mid-level flow shifts out of the southwest behind the
boundary, with temperatures reaching afternoon highs in the mid
to upper 50s in high terrain and low to mid 60s at lower
elevations. Increased cloud cover overnight will aid in keeping
temperatures mild, as overnight lows only fall to the upper 40s
to mid 50s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We start the long term off with a weak surface low tracking through
Quebec near the Hudson Bay and its attendant cold front approaches
the Northeast. Southerly flow ahead of the boundary ushers in a
warmer air mass allowing temperatures on Tuesday to warm towards 70
which is right around the climatological norm. Meanwhile, in the
Ohio Valley we will be monitoring an initially open trough. As the
trough shifts eastward, southwesterly winds along and ahead of our
cold front will strengthen, enhancing the moisture
advection/convergence along the boundary. In fact, PWATs rise above
1" making it feel rather humid on Tuesday. The increased moisture
convergence plus height falls ahead of the wave will likely result
in areas of showers along and ahead of the cold front which is why
we maintained widespread likely POPs for Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The increased humidity will also keep a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Guidance suggests an inverted trough develops along
the boundary given this set-up and with enhanced PWATs, periods of
steady rain look possible.

Recent trends indicate that our initially open wave in the Ohio
Valley may close off which would prolong precipitation into
Wednesday. There are still discrepancies among the guidance if this
wave remains open or closes off/slows down but with the trough in
the left exit region of a jet streak, we decided to account for
recent pessimistic trends and linger chance POPs through the day
Wednesday. In fact, the trough may even linger into Thursday if it
closes off based on some latest trends but we maintained a dry
forecast until there is more of a consensus.

Once the trough/closed low finally exits, there should be a brief
dry respite as high pressure builds in behind it with a warm air
mass continuing overhead. This should support near to even warmer
than normal temperatures once high pressure takes control. However,
the dry break is short-lived as our next boundary looks to arrive
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are mainly in place tonight with partial cloud
coverage and a few isolated showers that tracked west of the
Taconics into the Hudson Valley. Given these isolated showers, we
included VCSH for ALB where the latest radar imagery shows a few
isolated showers near the terminal. Otherwise, POU has recorded
brief periods of IFR vis and cigs so far tonight which is why we
have a TEMPO group for IFR conditions in the latest TAF issuance
through 09 UTC. Any reduced cigs or vis should diminish by sunrise
given the strong May sun angle.

VFR conditions expected through at least 21 UTC at all terminals
with a period of morning sun mixing with diurnally driven cumulus
clouds by 16-18 UTC once the convective temperature is reached. A
few showers look to develop by 18 - 21 UTC, initially in the terrain
before spilling into some valley areas, so included VCSH at GFL, PSF
and ALB but note that showers will mainly isolated to widely
scattered so we do not expect any reduction to flight categories.

Showers become a bit more numerous by or shortly after 00 UTC as an
upper level disturbance from the Midwest slides eastward so included
-SHRA at ALB, PSF and GFL but again VFR conditions. Ceilings lower
towards the end of the TAF period and could approach MVFR limits by
03 - 06 UTC. Better chance for MVFR cigs after 06 UTC.

Southeasterly winds around 5 - 8kts continue tonight through the day
tomorrow. Southeasterly winds become a bit strong by or shortly
after 21 UTC as the sfc pressure gradient tightens resulting in
sustained winds ranging 6 - 9kts with gusts up to 12kts or so. These
winds continue through the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale