000
FXUS61 KALY 161951
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
351 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly clear and cold
conditions tonight. Clouds will increase from the south and west
tomorrow ahead of a warm front with showers moving in south of
Albany late in the day. The showers will gradually increase in
coverage across the region Wednesday night with wet and cool
conditions continuing through Thursday, as the unsettled weather
continues into the first half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT...High pressure will build in over NY and New
England tonight with clear/mostly clear skies and diminishing
winds prior to midnight. The sfc anticyclone will be building in
south and east of James Bay. The dry air, mostly clear
conditions and light to calm conditions will promote ideal
radiational cooling conditions.

Mid and upper level heights will be rising as the the downstream
trough will slowly move east of the Canadian Maritimes. Our low
temps are on the colder end of the guidance towards the ECM/NAM
MOS. Lows will be in the 20s and lower 30s over the higher
terrain and in the sheltered valleys north and west of the
Capital Region. Expect mid and upper 30s from the Capital Region
south and east. Some readings in the Adirondack Park could get
into the mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...the mid and upper level ridge axis will be over NY
and New England in the early afternoon, as the 1020-1025 hPa sfc
anticyclone moves southeast of Cape Cod. Low and mid level warm
advection will be ongoing across western-central NY. Mid and
high clouds will increase from the south and west. The upstream
mid and upper level trough will be shearing out over the Great
Lakes Region and southern Ontario. The air mass is dry across
the forecast area, but the best synoptic forcing and moisture
convergence shifts toward the southeast Catskills and the I-84
corridor northeast towards the Helderbergs/western Mohawk Valley
in the late afternoon. Our highest PoPs remain south and west of
the Capital Region for some light rain showers. The rest of the
region remains dry with increasing clouds. Highs will be in the
mid 50s to lower 60s with spotty mid 60s near Albany.

Wed night low and mid level heights continue to fall with
increasing weak to modest isentropic lift with some vorticity
advection with the shearing out wave upstream. Periods of
showers will lift slowly northeast across the forecast area.
Lowest PoPs continue across the Lake George Region and southern
VT due to low-level dry air and downsloping easterlies. Lows
will generally be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the higher
terrain north and east of the Capital District.

Numerous to widespread showers will continue on Thursday with
cool conditions due to stratiform cooled air and lots of
clouds. The boundary weakens and falls apart running into the
downstream ridge axis over northern New England. Light to modest
amounts of rainfall are possible. Max temps will run close to
10 degrees below normal with upper 40s to lower 50s in the
valleys with mainly 40s over the higher terrain. Some of the
northern most zones and southern VT mainly receive little to no
rainfall. The showers decrease and shrink in coverage Thu night
with weak short-wave ridging trying to build in from the Ohio
Valley. It will remain cloudy and cool. Typical April weather
with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s across eastern NY and
western New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins with an approaching cold front
from the eastern Great Lakes Region, Ohio Valley and the St Lawrence
River Valley that will increase clouds during the morning with
scattered to numerous showers in the afternoon into the early
evening. Enough low-level convergence occurs with the front with
modest upper level dynamics for light to moderate rainfall amounts.
The consensus for the best synoptic forcing and lift with the front
and approaching upper level trough based on the latest medium range
guidance and ensembles is in the late afternoon through the night
time period. Total rainfall looks to be in the couple of tenths to
half inch range. Highs on Friday will be near seasonal normals in
the upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys with upper 40s to mid 50s
over the hills and mtns.  Lows Friday night with the cold advection
with the first boundary will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over
the southern Dacks/southern Greens.

The first half of the weekend will be unsettled, as a broad mid and
upper level trough will be over eastern Canada and the Northeast.
The cyclonic vorticity advection with the upper level low and
secondary cold front will bring additional isolated to scattered
showers during the day with perhaps some snow showers over the
western Adirondacks at night.  850 hPa temps will run a little below
normal and with the brisk west/northwest flow expect max temps to
run below normal with 40s over the mtns and 50s over the rest of the
forecast area with some near 60F readings near KPOU.  A chilly night
is expected Sat night in the cold advection regime with lows in the
30s with some 20s over the higher terrain.  The second half of the
weekend will feature improving and drier conditions.  Mixed clouds
with sunshine and brisk conditions with below normal temps are
anticipated, as a broad sfc anticylone builds in from the
Plains and Great Lakes Region. Max temps will run below normal
by 5-10 degrees with 40s to 50s across the region.

The mid and upper level flow becomes less amplified and more zonal
Sunday night through Monday with moderating temps.  Max temps will
trend closer to seasonable readings with dry weather persisting.
Temps will be less chilly Monday night, as a warm front approaches
from a northern stream disturbance. Clouds increase Tuesday with
chances of showers expected in the afternoon.  We will also monitor
a southern stream coastal disturbance which looks unphased at this
time. The NBM temps for the end of the long term look seasonable for
late April with mid 50s to lower 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
Few-sct diurnal fair wx cu st 5-7 kft will dissipate this evening,
with clear skies across the region after 00Z Wed. A frontal system
will approach from the southwest, bringing increased cloud coverage,
initially at POU by 09-12Z Wed, and at ALB/GFL/PSF by 12-15Z Wed.

West-northwest winds at 10-15 kt gusting 15-25 kt will continue into
this evening, before diminishing to less than 5 kt from the
northwest to northeast after 00-03Z Wed. Winds increase out of the
northeast at 5-10 kt after 09-15Z Wed, except at POU where light
and variable winds are expected ahead of the approaching front.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Picard