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000
FXUS64 KAMA 160903
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
403 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Based on current GOES water vapor imagery there is a mid to upper
level low trekking across CO and is currently in eastern CO. The
base of the associated trough is now in NM heading towards West
Texas. An associated Pacific front has pushed a dryline east into
western OK as of this writing, killing chances for severe storms
in the eastern FA. A surface low associated with this system is
now in western NE and is to continue moving east eventually ending
up in IA. As the surface low progresses into this afternoon a
weak cold front coming in on the back side of the surface low will
clip the northern combined Panhandles bringing some gusty
northerly winds. This front may even bring some slightly higher
dewpoints into the northern combined Panhandles this afternoon.

With the winds expected to be quite breezy, 20 to 25 mph, and
gusty, 30 to 35 mph some wind driven elevated to potentially low
end critical fire weather conditions may be possible across the
OK Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle behind a surface front.
However, winds do not line up well with the lowest RH values for
this afternoon. With dewpoints expected to come up behind the
front moving in from the north RH values are only expected to fall
into the upper teens to lower 20s across the north. Hence the
`wind driven` fire weather conditions. The front is not expected
to hinder daytime highs this afternoon with temperatures still
making into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the combined
Panhandles.

Tonight winds will subside, both aloft and at the surface as the
upper level system moves off to the east. Tomorrow is expected to
be another warm day with only slightly breezy winds picking up in
the afternoon hours after seeing some light a variable winds
overnight into the early morning hours. Temperatures are once
again expected to rise into the 80s with the far western combined
Panhandles seeing Tds in the mid to upper 20s, leading to RH
values falling into the low teens for the western FA. To the east
higher Tds will keep the min RH around 20 percent. Mainly elevated
fire weather conditions are expected in the far northwestern
combined Panhandles with winds maxing out around 15 to 20 mph in
the western OK Panhandle. Elsewhere in the FA expecting winds to
max out around 10 to 15 mph range from the south to southwest.
Over night lows tomorrow night are expected to fall into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A cold front will continue moving southward across the forecast
area Thursday morning with cooler temperatures anticipated behind
the boundary and lasting through the weekend. Another upper level
shortwave trof is expected to impact the region Friday night
through Sunday morning and will likely bring the next chance for
precipitation. Specific details concerning this next storm system
remain in question given this is still 4 to 5 days out in time.
Nevertheless, medium range deterministic models and associated
ensembles are in general agreement and were accepted. Dry weather
returns for Sunday afternoon through Monday as the upper level
shortwave trof heads east of the area and is replaced by an upper
level ridge of high pressure on Monday which will lead to warmer
temperatures on that day. NBM pops and temperatures look reasonable
based on the predicted synoptic pattern and were incorporated into
all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with breezy west winds
around 15 to 20 kts. KDHT and KGUY may see those winds gusting
upwards of 35 kts after 16Z and before 00Z Wednesday with a more
northerly shift in direction as a front creeps into the northern
Panhandles. Skies should remain mostly clear with a few high
clouds.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Some strong winds will potentially fill in behind a front that
will clip the northern combined Panhandles today. This could
potentially bring some low end critical fire weather conditions
with wind driven RFTI values approaching 4. However, these
strongest winds do not line up with the lowest RH values,
especially in the west as the front swings in and swings out of
the area quickly. The min RH in the northeastern combined
Panhandles may only fall to around 20 to 25 percent RH. Unless
winds or RH over perform it really only looks like an elevated
fire weather day across the north with short periods of critical
conditions. If confidence continues to increase for critical
criteria falling short of a 3-hour period, the current Red Flag
Warning may potentially need to be cancelled early on today and
replaced with a fire danger statement.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  47  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  80  45  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              76  43  81  44 /   0  10   0   0
Borger TX                  85  49  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              82  46  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  81  46  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               82  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 79  42  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  78  43  83  46 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                81  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                81  49  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                84  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              84  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001>006.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...36