482
FXUS63 KAPX 170209
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1009 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances tonight and Friday

- Well above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday

- Rain chances increase early next week

- Cooler weather for the second half of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Upstream occluded/cold front is slowly making its way into
Michigan late this evening...generating an area of showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms ahead of it. This precip is currently
impacting Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower Michigan...with
some additional spotty convection developing along its southern
flank over Northern Lake Michigan. This front will slow push
thru our CWA overnight into Friday...continuing to generating
scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded non-severe
thunderstorms. Wind fields will remain weak and instability
limited...thus the expectation of sub-severe storm activity.
Cloud cover combined with ongoing weak WAA ahead of the front
will keep temps relatively mild overnight...with low temps
expected to only drop into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Pattern/synopsis: An initial shortwave trof will pivot across
northern parts of the forecast area this evening. A trailing,
somewhat more amplified wave will follow a similar track Fri
morning. At the surface, a 1004mb surface low near DLH will
weaken. The associated front will enter the forecast area
overnight, then stall out over eastern sections late Friday.

Forecast: Precip coverage is reasonably impressive just
upstream, over far ne WI and central upper MI, including some
embedded thunder over Door Co. But our airmass over here is
drastically drier, with surface temps mid 60s to mid 70s, and
dew points in the 40s and in some places 30s. Between that and
the cold water of Lake MI, upstream convection will have a lot
of work to. It will succeed, in spots, but only sct to low-end
likely pops are in order. The highest pops tonight (by a little
bit) will be in eastern sections, where the slowing nature of
the entire system will allow more time to overcome the initial
dry air. Meanwhile, pops will be decreasing west of I-75 toward
dawn. A plume of MuCape values to 500j/kg are progged to cross
the area from w to e, so embedded thunder remains possible thru
the night. But relatively meager instability and effective
shear, and increasingly elevated nature of convection, will
sharply limit any svr threat.

Min temps milder, upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Friday, leftover synoptic precip will only creep eastward
over ne lower MI and Drummond Isl. But while drier air slowly
filters into western areas, the east will see pooled moisture
along the stalling front and with developing lake breezes. With
the expected emergence of partial sunshine, even in the east, as
the day proceeds, some instability develops in the east. MlCape
values will again be near or slightly higher than 500j/kg.
Perhaps a stronger storm (still non-severe) will be possible,
with 30-40kt 500mb winds. Of course, storms will tend to move
over cooler/stable marine air as they attempt to organize and
move eastward.

Max temps mid 60s eastern upper MI, to perhaps upper 70s near
Gladwin.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The beginning of the long term shows split flow over North America,
with an upper low over the Canadian prairies and another open wave
moving through the Gulf Coast and southeastern CONUS. Several
disturbances will rotate around the base of that Canadian upper low,
with none of them having more than a glancing impact on northern
Michigan until the first part of next week.

At the surface, northern Michigan will be under the influence
of high pressure to our northeast, limiting rain chances despite
warm advection. The result of all this is summerlike
temperatures with only spotty rain chances for the weekend.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be well above normals for mid-
May.

The flow pattern breaks down early next week as the Canadian upper
low meanders far enough east for disturbances to meaningfully impact
our area. Some discrepancies in medium range model timing remain,
but the most likely event at this stage is for rain chances to
increase on Monday, peaking Monday night through Tuesday night, then
lingering at a lower chance after that through mid-week.

The clouds and rain will mean cooler temperatures as well,
especially for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will impact Northern
Michigan tonight into Friday as a weak cold front slowly pushes
thru our state. Prevailing VFR conditions will drop to
MVFR/possibly IFR within any heaver showers/storms that develop.
Prevailing conditions will drop to MVFR later tonight into
Friday morning as low level moisture continues to gradually
increase. Surface winds will remain southerly AOB 10 kts tonight
into Friday morning...shifting to the NW Friday afternoon in the
wake of the cold front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JHV
AVIATION...MLR