Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 191829
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024



.DISCUSSION...Still expecting a breezy and cool weather pattern
across the region over the next several days as a trough becomes
established across northeast Canada. Do expect this trough to
eventually give up the ghost late next week leading to warming
temperatures. Looking farther ahead, above normal temperatures are
expected for the last few days of the month. Precipitation
chances in the long term are limited to Monday night into Tuesday
night from a short wave moving in off of the Pacific and Friday
via warm air advection. A majority of the upcoming low
temperatures (with the exception of perhaps Monday night) will be
at or below freezing with at least a couple of nights potentially
as low as the low and mid 20s.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400. Slight chance of snow
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....30-35.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (139).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers and snow showers until 1200, then
                    chance of rain showers and snow showers.
Max Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1374).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and snow showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....26-31...except 34-39 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....48-53...except 40-45 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1893).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....30-35.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (107).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers. Slight chance of rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1516).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....25-30...except 32-37 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....53-58...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2281).
Mixing Height.......7500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........70-75 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (189).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers and snow showers.
Max Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1330).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (34).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....49-54...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1727).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....29-34.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (221).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1257).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31...except 33-38 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1935).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....29-34.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........68-73 percent.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (146).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers. Slight chance of rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1423).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....24-29.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (34).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2245).
Mixing Height.......7500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

AJS
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