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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic gale warning: A cold front has moved off
northern Florida with a squall line containing numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms ahead of it. The front extends from
31N76W to near Jupiter, Florida. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are occurring ahead and behind the front, mainly N of 27N,
increasing to gale speeds N of 29N late this afternoon and spreading
eastward through tonight. Winds will diminish below gale late
tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. The
front will reach from 31N73W to near Miami, Florida this evening,
from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then
stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. The remnant trough is forecast
to linger through the remainder of the week with mainly tranquil
conditions for the end of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 08N12W and extends southwestward
to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 02N30W to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 280 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends west about 200 nm offshore Naples, Florida
where it transitions to a stationary boundary and extends SW to
just N of Veracruz, Mexico. Possible thunderstorms continue
along the boundary. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
behind the front to 28N, as noted in recent scatterometer and
altimeter observations. Light and variable winds are ahead of
the front, with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast,The front will push SE of the basin by this
evening with conditions gradually improving. High pressure will
dominate in the wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will
increase by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens,
which will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near
the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the basin is supporting moderate to fresh
trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW
Caribbean, 3 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 4 ft in
the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the broad high pressure north of the area will
sustain moderate to locally fresh trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the N coast of Colombia and
near the Gulf of Venezuela at times. Mainly gentle to moderate
trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh from
the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore central
Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into the
Caribbean N of 19N tonight, possibly bringing a brief period of
active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special features section for information on gale
conditions expected across the NW waters, associated with a cold
front.

Ahead of the cold front mentioned in the special features
section, a ridge extends from 31N52W to near the northern
Bahamas. A trough intercepts the ridge near 22N61W to the Northern
Coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to
fresh winds are associated with this feature south of 20N to the
Caribbean Islands.

To the E, low pressure is near 30N30W. A second area of low
pressure with associated gale conditions is north of the area
near 32N32W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
are north of 28N and east of 40W. A cold front extends from the
low in our area to 25N31W and to 20N40W. Moderate to fresh winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front south of 28N.

For the forecast west of 55W, please see the special features
section above.

$$
Mora