142
FXUS61 KBGM 011055
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather has returned for today into Friday. Temperatures
will remain above average for early May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 AM Update...

Clouds have scattered in Steuben and Pike/Sullivan so made minor
changes. The rest is good with increasing sunshine.

345 am update...

This period will be mainly dry with cooler temperatures than the
last few days but still above average for early May. Clouds from
the last system are exiting to the southeast out of our
Catskills and Poconos. Below these clouds is still plenty of
moisture in the form of fog and low stratus clouds. Some
clearing has worked east into Steuben County showing river
valley fog. Sunshine today will help burn off and lift the fog
by 10 am. Clouds will clear from southwest to northeast today so
that late afternoon will be mostly sunny. Highs will be from the
upper 60s in the northeast to mid 70s for valleys from
Corning/Elmira to WB/Scranton.

Tonight some clouds will return to the I90 corridor as a weak
cold front crosses the area. Oneida County could have a few
light showers. Clouds with a marine layer should edge into the
northern Poconos and southern Catskills late tonight before
retreating in the morning. Lows will be in the 50s. Patchy
valley fog in the twin tiers is possible but winds will be
stronger and the ground will have lost some moisture.

Thursday will mostly sunny and breezy with northwest winds at 10
to 15 mph behind the front. Mostly cloudy skies over Oneida
County will lift north in the afternoon. Highs will be similar
to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

Quiet weather through the short term period as high pressure
takes control. Light southerly flow and warm advection will
boost temperatures above average with highs into the 70s area-
wide on Friday. Next frontal system will approach from the west
late Friday night into Saturday. This will bring increasing
clouds overnight with showers possible by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Weak frontal boundary will push into the area on Saturday.
Scattered rain showers will be possible through the day and high
temperatures will be cooler, dropping into the 60s over most
areas. A second front will quickly push into the Great Lakes
Sunday, with shower chances increasing later Sunday afternoon.
The shortwave trough associated with this system looks to stay
focused to our north, however, and this will mean less upper
level support, and spotty/disorganized shower coverage. Temps
look to be similar to Saturday.

High pressure with dry weather returns once again, just in time
for the start of the workweek on Monday. A warm front to our
south may become the focus for showers heading into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
655 am update...

IFR clouds continue at all sites except AVP. IFR vsbys
continue with fog at ITH/ELM. SYR is fuel alternate due to cigs.

Some improvement has started at some sites but all should be
MVFR by 14z and VFR by 16z for most and SYR/RME by 18z.

Valley fog not in the TAFs for late tonight. There is a small
chance at ELM and maybe ITH. Tonight will have more wind and
less ground moisture.

To start with winds will be light and variable. During the day
winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 kts. Tonight winds will be 5
kts of less from the east and southeast, shifting to southwest
late.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Sunday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...TAC