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000
FXUS64 KBRO 112314 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
614 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Quiescent weather conditons look to persist through the short range
forecast period with a surface high pressure in control.
Deterministic forecast models/ensembles continue to depict mid-level
ridging beginning to build tonight through Friday night.

Tonight will be on the cool side under mainly clear skies. Overnight
lows are expected to fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s. On Friday,
daytime high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower
90s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Finally, Friday night
will feature warmer conditions with higher but still comfortable
humidity levels. Overnight lows are progged to be in the 60s across
Deep South Texas (low 70s along the coast and SPI).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A mid-level ridge will be the driving feature for the majority of
the long term forecast period acting to keep rain chances away form
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Surface high pressure
will be moving away from the region during the course of the weekend
allowing for a surface low to move in behind it that will tighten
the pressure that will see stronger winds occurring for Sunday and
Monday. Winds on Monday could see some gusts that might require a
Wind Advisory for the Lower Rio Grande Valley. After that however,
pleasant conditions are expected to remain.

As for the temperatures, a gradual warming trend till Monday at
which the temperatures will stop increasing and reach a status quo.
As such the low temperatures starting the long term will be in the
upper 60s, but will increase to the lower 70s for the region by
Monday night and remain that way for the rest of the long term
forecast period. As for the high temperatures, they will start out
mostly in the 80s, but with a few places in the lower 90s. Once
again, by Monday the temperatures will continue to increase to where
most of the region is in the 90s. Locations generally along the
coast will still be in the upper 80s though.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions at the TAF sites. Good flying conditions through
Friday as high pressure spreads over the area. Could see a few
high clouds moving in from the west. Light southeast winds will
become breezy and gusty Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Now through Friday...A moderate risk for rip currents will exist
through Friday. Overall, more favorable marine conditions can be
expected through Friday with light to moderate winds and seas.

Saturday through Thursday...Moderate-to-fresh winds are expected
on Saturday for the Laguna Madre and nearshore (0-20 nm) Gulf
Waters, which will expand to the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf Waters
overnight Saturday and settling down over late night. A similar
pattern is expected Sunday into Sunday night but with even
stronger winds over the Bay and nearshore, which may necessitate a
Small Craft Advisory, especially for the Bay. A Small Craft
Advisory may also be needed Monday into Tuesday morning across all
marine zones due to the marine boundary layer mixing down
stronger winds from an enhanced low level jet. Following, a
sustained moderate southeasterly breeze will keep Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions for the Bay and Gulf Waters throughout
the rest of the forecast as winds keep seas elevated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Have to keep close watch on fire weather conditions on Friday.
Forecast models continue to indicate relative humidity (RH) values
falling below 30 percent Friday afternoon with 20ft winds increasing
out of the southeast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Therefore, a Fire
Weather Danger Statement will likely be needed across much of Deep
South Texas on Friday, except near the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             86  61  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               86  57  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 88  59  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         88  57  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  68  78  70 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  61  83  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...54-BHM