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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261802
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east to the New England coastline tonight
maintaining dry weather. A warm front will lift across the region
this weekend bringing some showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder, especially Saturday. A warming trend this weekend into
early next week will result in late spring to summerlike warmth
both Sunday and Monday. A cold front will bring our next chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will drift to the New England coast tonight, while
upper-level ridging builds across New York State. Meanwhile further
west, an initial cutter-type low will weaken as it tracks from the
central Plains states to the Upper Mississippi Valley. As it
does, this system will push a warm frontal boundary toward our
region. This will initially bring a general west to east increase
in mid and high cloud cover to most areas tonight, with perhaps
the chance of a shower reaching Chautauqua county toward Saturday
morning. Otherwise the night will remain dry, and will be notably
milder than the previous couple nights as a southeasterly return
flow of milder air strengthens across our region. Expect
overnight low temperatures to range from the upper 30s across
the North Country to the lower 50s along the Lake Erie shoreline,
where downsloping will provide added warmth to temperatures,
and may also allow winds to gust to 30-35 mph during the second
half of the night.

The warm frontal boundary will lift into the region Saturday and
gradually weaken as it moves to the east. This front will bring
the likelihood for showers to western New York with the
expectation that the shower activity will become more scattered
farther to the east during the afternoon as the frontal boundary
weakens. Can not completely rule out a rumble of thunder, but
instability looks very limited so it seems this threat will be
isolated at best. High temperatures should range from the upper
50s to upper 60s with the warmest locations downwind of the
Chautauqua Ridge near the Lake Erie shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The combination of the warmer temperatures and the lingering
synoptic lift from the lingering/stalled frontal boundary
will support diurnally driven instability and afternoon
showers/thunderstorms on Sunday. A mid-level ridge axis will
cross the area Sunday night supporting dry weather Sunday night.
850mb warming up to +12/13 C which will support high
temperatures well above normal in the 70s to lower 80s on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Departing upper level ridge will maintain mainly rain-free weather
for Monday, with only a slight chance of an instability shower or
thunderstorm. Monday will almost feel summer-like with highs
reaching 80F at many locations.

Low pressure tracking across the central Great Lakes and into
Ontario province will push a cold front across the region on
Tuesday. Warm and moist air mass in place will result in ample
instability to support thunderstorms with the frontal passage,
especially Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

After this, forecast confidence decreases with a wider range in the
way model guidance handles a series of weak frontal boundaries. In
general there`s a small chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday,
focused during afternoon/evening hours corresponding to diurnal
heating. It will be a bit cooler, but temperatures will still remain
above normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will drift to the New England coastline tonight.
There will be patchy cirrus level clouds through this evening
with a continuation of unlimited VFR conditions through at
least 04z tonight.

Weakening low pressure will make its way into the upper Midwest
later tonight, while pushing a warm front toward our region.
This will bring a general west to east increase in mid and high
cloud cover after midnight. The warm front will move into the
region Saturday morning with some showers, but confidence is
low on rain coverage and intensity and therefore any
restrictions to visibility. An isolated thunderstorms is
possible, but confidence is even lower on coverage. Low end VFR
cigs are possible across far western New York (KIAG, KBUF,
KJHW) toward the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely
along with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift to the New England coastline tonight.
On Lake Ontario, easterly winds will remain elevated and maintain
advisory-level conditions on the western portions of the lake
west of Rochester through this evening.

High pressure will remain anchored off the New England coast tonight
and Saturday, while low pressure tracks from the central Plains
to central Ontario. This will result in winds across the lower
Great Lakes veering to southeast and then south while strengthening,
though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help
to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters. As a
result, conditions are expected to remain below advisory
criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA