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000
FXUS62 KCAE 130736
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
336 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds begin to weaken some today, but it will still be breezy
through the afternoon. An extended period of warm and dry
weather is expected with only slight chances for rain during
the late week period from passing cold fronts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today and Tonight: Region will be in a dry northwesterly flow
regime behind an exiting upper trough axis today. Surface
pressure gradient will finally begin to relax through the day,
but not enough to eliminate wind gusts. Westerly surface winds
of 10-15 mph will remain through the day. Low-level inversion
will break by 9 am allowing for a good amount of mixing and a
dry adiabatic temperature profile through 5 kft. This will bring
some stronger winds to the surface through the afternoon hours.
Good news is that the strength of the winds in the mixed layer
will be weaker today, and should continue to weaken into
tonight. Highest wind gusts may occur as the morning inversion
breaks, with wind gusts expected to only be up to 20-25 mph. Do
not expect any need for advisories today. Winds decouple quicker
tonight as inversion sets back up and pressure gradient weakens
more. As for temperatures, with the northwesterly winds aloft,
there should be some warming due to downsloping, which should be
able to help bring afternoon temperatures into the middle 70s
for most areas. For lows, with better radiational cooling
tonight, readings drop back down into the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Heights increase through the period as upper ridging builds in
from the west. Meanwhile, surface high pressure shifts east
towards Bermuda. These features result in continued dry
conditions and warming temperatures. Skies will be generally
sunny for much of the short term with the primary exception
occurring late Sunday when a passing shortwave could produce
scattered mid-level cloudiness. Surface winds will be lighter
than today but could be breezy at times in the afternoon.
Confidence in above to well above normal temperatures remains
high (>75%) on both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended opens with upper ridging in control of the region.
The ridge is pushed east on Wednesday as a potent upper low
moves through the Great Lakes region followed by southwesterly
flow aloft. At the surface, the FA remains under the influence
of high pressure near Bermuda until the late week period when
one or two cold fronts pass through the region. Highest odds of
rain are on Friday but confidence remains low (10-30%) resulting
in only Slight Chance PoPs on Friday afternoon. Above to well
above normal temperatures are likely to continue through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR the 24 hr forecast period.

Dry airmass with westerly winds over the next 24 hours. With
limited moisture, skies will be mostly clear. Fog is not
expected. Winds will still be the main issue again today.
Sustained winds this morning between 5-10 knots, then as the
inversion breaks towards 14-15z, winds increase to between 10-15
knots, with gusts up to 20 knots mixing down to the surface
through a good portion of the early afternoon. As the pressure
gradient weakens later this afternoon winds will begin to
weaken, then drop to around 5 knots by sunset as an inversion
sets up overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$