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000
FXUS62 KCAE 181052
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
652 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and sunny day expected today with warm temperatures and
no chance of rain. Moisture will increase Friday and Saturday
as a cold front moves into the area. With strong heating,
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop. The front will become stationary near or slightly south
of the area Sunday. Deep moisture and lift across the area will
result in numerous showers Sunday through early Monday.
Temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be well below
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak shortwave energy is crossing the region early this morning
and should clear the high clouds out allowing for a mostly
sunny day. PWATs will be falling below an inch this morning as
drier air moves in behind the departing shortwave with some
subsidence. Surface low pressure will lift northeastward from
the Central Plains this morning to the western Ohio Valley by
this evening pushing a cold front into the Mississippi Valley
remaining well west of our area.

Temperatures this afternoon should be warmer than yesterday
with plenty of sunshine expected in addition to some downsloping
flow with high temperatures expected to be in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees. Temperatures may approach record values at
AGS (91 set back in 1896). Deep mixing within a drier air mass
should result in low humidities as dewpoints fall into the 40s.

Tonight, chances of rain increase after midnight as hi-res
guidance shows some showers and possible thunderstorms
developing ahead of the front to our west. There is some
agreement that any activity that moves into the western Midlands
will be weakening as it moves in and will be moving into a
drier air mass so will only carry slight chance pops in the
western Midlands and upper CSRA tonight. Overnight lows should
remain above normal and be similar to this morning with lows in
the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave will be moving through the area Friday morning as moisture
increases with HREF mean PWATs climbing to above 1.2 inches. Some
showers are possible associated with the shortwave from west to
east, tapering off mid to late morning with a lack of forcing into
the early afternoon limiting the potential for precip until a
surface trough shifts into the area by late afternoon into Friday
evening, strengthening low level convergence. With temperatures
above average once again as highs rise into the mid to upper 80s,
expect moderate destabilization with 70% of HREF members showing
sbCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. CAMs indicate convection developing
along the surface trough, mainly across the northern portion of the
forecast area. SPC maintains a marginal severe risk over the entire
area. Deep layer shear increases late in the day and while it will
likely not be overly impressive, it will support organized multi-
cells. Isolated damaging wind gusts or marginally severe hail will
be possible with the strongest storms. Storms should dissipate
Friday night with a loss of daytime heating. Lows remain mild, in
the low to mid 60s.

A cold front will be pushed into the area Saturday from the north
and slowly move south through the area which will lead to a
tighter temperature gradient with southern portions of the
forecast area once again in the upper 80s but along the north,
closer to 80. While upper forcing appears to be somewhat limited
with zonal flow aloft, surface convergence along the front will
support scattered showers and thunderstorms once again,
although a bit more uncertainty as to the degree of instability
across the forecast area. Chances for showers and even an
isolated storm continue overnight with a shortwave expected to
move in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The front will be near the southern border of the forecast area
early Sunday morning with strengthening isentropic lift over the
forecast area and a more robust shortwave moving in late in the day
leading to widespread rain. Guidance continues to trend more towards
an in situ wedge developing Sunday so have continued to go
below blended guidance for temperatures, keeping highs mostly in
the 60s. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this
wedge breaks into Monday but typically see biases in models of
breaking the wedge too early so for now have gone below blended
guidance for highs Monday as well and kept at least low chances
for rain. Beyond Monday, expect gradual warming trend through
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the 24hr TAF period.

Satellite imagery shows higher clouds have almost cleared the
area and skies should be mostly sunny through the day. Some
possible MVFR/IFR vsbys through 13z at OGB but then VFR expected
afterwards.

Light and variable winds will pick up from the northwest to west
at around 5 knots by 14z as a weak surface trough shifts
southeastward through the area. Winds may shift back to the
southwest by 20z in response to an approaching frontal boundary.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Saturday. Restrictions expected on Sunday into
Monday with possible developing wedge conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$