842
FXUS61 KCAR 110416
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1216 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday
night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday
night and Tuesday then crosses the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1216AM Update...Clouds continue to clear in the north. No major
changes to the forecast for this update.

Previous discussion:
Surface high pressure centered across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
will ridge back across the region tonight through Saturday. Aloft,
troffing re-develops across the region tonight into Saturday. A
disturbance will move through the trof Saturday. Diurnal clouds will
decrease early tonight generally leaving partly cloudy/mostly
clear skies across the forecast area overnight. However,
indications are that clouds could also begin to back across
southeast portions of the forecast area, from the Maritimes,
late which could lead to increasing clouds there. Expect partly
sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area Saturday.
Could also have isolated, mostly afternoon, showers. Low
temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid
30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. High temperatures
Saturday will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across
much of the forecast, with slightly cooler temperatures possible
along the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure at the surface centered near Labrador will continue to
ridge down across the region Saturday night. Expect partly
cloudy skies Saturday night and partly sunny to mainly cloudy
skies on Sunday. The center of H5 low/cold pool aloft is
expected to remain to our south during Sunday. The forecast
soundings suggest the low levels will remain quite dry on
Sunday. The better instability associated with the upper level
low/cold pool aloft remains to our south and west, thus kept
things dry through Sunday. The upper low crosses the region
Sunday night and exits east toward the Canadian Maritimes.
Forecast soundings do show a bit more more instabilty aloft on
the northwest side of the departing upper low/cold pool aloft on
Monday, but once again the low levels look too dry to support
much in the way of measurable rainfall through most of the
afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm front approaches Monday night crosses the region on
Tuesday, followed by an approaching cold front later Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Moisture begins to increase in advance of the
front later Tuesday. There are model discrepancies Tuesday
night and Wednesday with regard to how quickly the front moves
through. Some models bring the front through Tuesday night.
GFS/CMC on the other hand slow the front up, with indications
that weak areas of low pressure will move northeast along the
front. There is also uncertainty as to how much southern stream
phasing occurs and whether we tap into more significant gulf
moisture, with the potential for some heavier rain. Have
maintained shower wording, but this may turn out to be a more
stratiform rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, used the
latest NBM pops for rain chances. A return to drier conditions
should follow for late week behind the aforementioned system.
Afternoon highs will trend near or a bit above normal mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected through Saturday, except there is the
chance for a period of MVFR ceilings at KBGR and KBHB late
tonight into Saturday morning. Forecast confidence is not great,
but did add in MVFR ceilings with the 00z Tafs as the MVFR
ceilings have been observed with the clouds as they move out of
New Brunswick and back into eastern Maine. Northeast winds less
than 10 knots through Saturday, and very light most of the time
the remainder of the night.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night through Mon...Mainly VFR.

Mon night and Tue...VFR/MVFR. Chance showers.

Tue night through Wed...MVFR or lower possible in showers/rain.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas generally below SCA levels through the
period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD
Marine...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD