452
FXUS62 KCHS 031323
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
923 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast through
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The remainder of the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled.
Visibilities will continue to improve as the fog/stratus mix
out.

Today: It will be another warm one across Southeast South
Carolina and Southeast Georgia. Morning GOES-E multi-layer water
vapor analysis and RAP initialization progs show subtropical
ridging remains in place across the Southeast U.S. this morning
with the ridge axis centered just offshore the South Carolina
and Georgia coast. This ridge will slowly propagate farther out
in the Atlantic today as weak impulses move across the Deep
South into the western Southeast States. Conditions will favor
the genesis of another progressive pure sea breeze with the
boundary propagating steadily inland through the local area
through the afternoon and evening. 850 hPa theta-e pooling
coupled across the far interior with some mixed-layer
instability (MLCAPE ~1200 J/kg) per modified RAP soundings at
KSBO and KMHP would suggest some convection that develops over
the CSRA and east-central Georgia could meander into roughly the
Reidsville-Millen corridor late this afternoon and evening.
Slight chance pops were maintained in this area to account for
this possibility.

The fog/stratus will lift into another healthy cumulus field
this afternoon which will scour out with the passage of the sea
breeze. Some high clouds will pass through aloft as well. The
net result will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for most
areas. Highs from the upper 80s/near 90 inland to the mid-upper
70s at the beaches look on track.

Tonight: A better looking short wave trough moves through the
Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf coast. This along with any
outflow boundaries from prior convection in and near the area,
will allow for isolated or scattered showers and a few t-storms
to occur. This is mainly far inland sections. There will be at
least some form of fog again after midnight given the southeast
and south flow in the boundary layer. However, there is likely
too much mid and high level clouds from the nearby convection
for dense fog to occur. We currently have mention of the
"patchy" fog qualifier, and we will monitor for any dense fog
potential. Low temperatures will be several degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid-level ridge axis will push off the Southeast coast Saturday
with passing waves of shortwave energy across the region through the
short term forecast period. High pressure will remain the primary
feature at the surface. Convection should be a bit more active over
the weekend and into Monday with the presence of deeper moisture as
PWATs increase to 1.5+ inches. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms
will be highest in the daytime when instability is maximized, but
with some upper forcing in play activity could linger into the
overnight period. The greatest chances are focused away from the
immediate coast owing to a progressive sea breeze.

High temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid 80s over the
weekend, warming into the mid to upper 80s Monday. Overnight lows
are only expected to drop to the mid to upper 60s, with locations
right along the beaches and Downtown Charleston near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will persist through the middle of next week.
Chances for showers/thunderstorms are limited Tuesday as weak
forcing/remnant shortwave energy passes offshore the Mid Atlantic
coast. Beyond Tuesday, rainfall chances are little to none as a
ridge rebuilds overhead. This will allow max temperatures to rise
into the low/mid 90s by mid next week, possibly approaching record
levels by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Other than a little light fog at KSAV through
13, VFR will prevail at all terminals. The potential for fog
tonight t is less than recent nights, and would likely occur
inland from the terminals anyway.

There are no concerns for SHRA or TSRA at any the terminals
with the 12Z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: High pressure from the Atlantic will be the main feature,
and even with sea breeze influences this afternoon, SE winds
will be no more than about 10 kt. Seas will be only around 2
feet. Even though it is light, the onshore flow will keep any
land based fog off the Atlantic. The exceptions will be
Charleston Harbor (especially the northern part of the harbor
near the North Charleston Port) and the Port of Savannah, where
some of the nearby fog from over the land could drift into
those areas early this morning. At this time no Dense Fog
Advisory is planned.

Tonight: Weak high pressure continues across the maritime
community. Once again the SE winds are no more than about 10
kt, with seas just 2 feet.

Saturday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain
benign conditions over the local waters. Southerly winds in the
morning will back out of the southeast during the afternoon and
evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will
average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$