737
FXUS64 KCRP 042005
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
305 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a low chance for thunderstorms in the northern Rio Grande
Plains, northern Brush Country, and Victoria Crossroads.

Low pressure in west Texas, and a warm front that is stretched
across north Texas and into Oklahoma will begin to move tonight as a
500 mb shortwave trough pushes through the region and pushes the sfc
low east and the warm front a little south into the Hill Country.
Models are kind of divided into two camps, The ECMWF fires off a
storm, or a complex of storms that move into the Hill country and
turns east along the front and continues east into southeast and
east Texas. The GFS fires off the complex near EPZ and moves east
overnight. The CAMs fall into pretty much those two camps. The NBM
takes a blend of these two sets spreads the pops south into the
northern Brush country with chance (40-50% chance pops from northern
Webb county to around VCT. The showers and thunderstorms look to
last into the morning on Sunday, however, the models again, are in
two camps with the ECMWF bringing a small bull`s eye of rain, while
the GFS begins to clear out. The NBM continues with 50% pops in most
of the forecast area through about 15z, before it begins to medium
chance pops 30-40% by 18z, and 20% pops through the afternoon.
Sunday night looks to quiet down and clear out as high pressure and
dry air moves back into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to high chance of heat index values 95 degrees
and higher.

Onshore flow will continue to stream moisture into the area,
resulting in above normal moisture across South Texas. This will
combine with the increasing heat to result in heat index values over
95 degrees. By Wednesday, there is a moderate to high chance that
heat index values will be 105 or greater over portions of South
Texas. A Heat Advisory may be needed for the latter part of the
week. For those of us who think this is "just normal" for South
Texas, we need to remember that we aren`t quite used to this. The
NWS HeatRisk, which takes the time of year into account, indicates a
high HeatRisk for each day from Tuesday through the end of the work
week--with an Extreme risk for portions of South Texas Thursday.
Please use caution if you need to be outside.

There is still a bit of a cool down on the horizon as a cold front
is expected to move through this weekend. At this point, we`ll take
whatever we can get before summer comes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR CIGs will continue over the majority of the forecast area
with only VCT that could see any VFR CIGs. With all of the
moisture in the low levels (sfc dewpoints around 70), patchy fog
(20-30% <5 miles) will reform tonight. the concern tonight into
Sunday morning will be for LRD, COT, and VCT as the front and dry
line, that has been stalled in central and west Texas, will sag
south. Models have been showing a low probability (20-30%) that
showers and thunderstorms will make it into VCT and LRD, and a
40% chance of getting into COT. so have put in VCTS for the
overnight period at those sites, and have left precipitation out
of ALI and CRP. As the disturbance and front move east, the CIGs
and VSBYs are expected to clear out by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected continue tonight and go
through the end of the work week, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions expected each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  87  75  88 /  20  40  10   0
Victoria          73  83  73  88 /  40  50  10   0
Laredo            76  91  76  97 /  30  50   0   0
Alice             74  88  74  92 /  30  40  10   0
Rockport          75  84  76  85 /  20  40  10   0
Cotulla           75  90  76  95 /  50  60  10   0
Kingsville        75  87  75  90 /  20  40  10   0
Navy Corpus       76  84  76  86 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...JSL