272
FXUS64 KCRP 031822
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the
  western Brush Country this afternoon through late this evening

Strong conditional instability will develop across Central and
South Texas this afternoon with 00Z HREF mean surface based CAPE
ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg. This conditional instability in
conjunction will deep layer shear exceeding 30 knots will result
in an environment favorable for organized deep convection.

Increasing low level moisture convergence is expected to result in
deep convection developing along and/or just east of the Sierra
Madres by late this afternoon. Hodographs of forecast wind shear
will support supercells that will move east to southeast through
the evening hours. There is a low chance that these supercells
will make it into the western Brush Country late this afternoon
into this evening. The primary hazard will be large hail with
forecast soundings returning numerous analogs associated with
significant hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. However, a
well mixed sub-cloud layer (characterized by DCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg) will also be supportive of damaging wind gusts.
Finally, the 00Z HREF guidance for this evening has maximum 3 hour
QPF amounts greater than 5 inches with a 10% chance of QPF over 3
inches within 25 miles of points across the Brush Country. Current
flash flood guidance over the Brush Country ranges from 3.5-5.5
inches over 3 hours. Therefore, in addition to the severe weather
threat, there will be a very low chance for isolated flash
flooding this evening.

The low chance for severe weather is expected to end by midnight
and give way to another muggy night across all of South Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

A mid-level shortwave (the last of several this week) will move
across the area on Sunday. The amount of moisture it has to work
with is questionable as drier air will be starting to filter in
through the low levels (above the surface) and decreasing PWAT
values. The cap also appears to hold on through much of the day.
That said, will maintain low (20-30%) pops through the day Sunday.

Next week shifts to a drier and warmer pattern with south to
southwesterly flow in the lower levels.  This will
result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande
by Tuesday and approaching 110 degrees by Thursday.  Elsewhere
temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid-
upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness
will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for
vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep
heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values
could exceed 110 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated showers are in the Victoria Crossroads, and the chances
are expected to remain low (chance <30%) that at VCT, CRP, and
ALI. In the meantime, MVFR CIGs are expected through the evening,
until the low clouds and fog move back into the region overnight.
An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop in the Rio Grande
Valley to the north or along the Sierra Madre and move southeast
into COT and LRD after 00z/SAT and last through about 03z/SAT
before they die off or move out of the forecast area. The rest of
the night will have MVFR to IFR CIGs and probably MVFR to VFR
VSBYs as the moisture remains high overnight. Ceilings will rise
late in the morning to MVFR, and possibly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the upcoming
work week. This will result in persistent seas of 3-6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  87  75  87 /  20   0  10  20
Victoria          73  87  73  86 /  30   0  10  30
Laredo            76  95  76  93 /  40  10  20  30
Alice             74  90  74  90 /  20  10  10  20
Rockport          75  85  75  84 /  20   0  10  20
Cotulla           76  94  75  93 /  40  20  30  40
Kingsville        74  88  74  89 /  20   0  10  20
Navy Corpus       76  85  77  85 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...JSL/86