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000
FXUS64 KCRP 201148
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
648 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

An upper level disturbance is expected to move across the region
tonight/early Sunday. Current PWAT values 1.3-1.6 inches
(satellite-based and LAPS), yet the NAM predicts PWAT values to
increase to 1.75-2.00 inches over the Coastal Plains this
afternoon. Select NAM deterministic soundings suggest that parcels
will reach their respective LFCs near a frontal boundary that is
predicted to move across the CWA tonight. The front is currently
quasi-stationary approximately just north of the CWA. Expect this
boundary to begin to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the northern CWA this afternoon. Scattered/numerous
convection will continue as the front moves S/SE across the
reminder of the CWA tonight. Expect environmental conditions in
advance of and along the front to be favorable for supercells (per
NAM deterministic BRN values). Concur with SPC with regard to the
areawide Marginal risk of severe storms. WPC depcits a Marginal
risk of Excessive rainfall for potions of the Victoria Crossroads
and northern Brush Country for today/tonight. PWAT values are
predicted to reach at least 2SD above normal over the Victoria
Crossroads this afternoon, yet conditions not quite conducive to
efficient rainfall production (0-6 km vertical wind shear and less
than saturated conditions in the 0-4km layer), and thus the 1-hr
FFG of 3-4 inches may not be met. However, if the front moves
slowly southward, flash flooding thresholds could be met. Drier
and cooler conditions expected Sunday afternoon after frontal
passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Zonal flow will setup in the wake of the front with cooler weather
to begin next week. By mid-week, a mid to upper level ridge will
slide into the region beginning yet another warming trend, with
temperatures peaking late next week with a low to medium chance for
daytime highs to reach 100 degrees across the Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains. Highs early next week are expected to range in the
70s before gradually warming into the 80s by mid week and 80s to 90s
late next week. As for our overnight lows, 50s and 60s can be
expected early next week before warming into the 60s and 70 mid week
and 70s by late next week. Rain free conditions are expected all of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings are expected today. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the Victoria Crossroads and northern Brush Country, affecting
terminals COT and VCT, then transition to the remaining terminals
to the south tonight, along with a mixture of MVFR and IFR
conditions. Some storms may become strong. Precipitation should
dissipate behind a cold front that is expected to move offshore by
09z Sunday. After frontal passage, IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow today. The approach of an upper
level disturbance and cold front will increase the chance for
showers and thunderstorms tonight/early Sunday. Environmental
conditions may become favorable for strong storms. Drier
conditions are expected Sunday afternoon. Moderate to strong
northeast flow Sunday night will weaken to weak to moderate levels
by Monday. Winds will shift to the east Monday afternoon then
again Monday night to the southeast. Weak to moderate southeast
winds are expected all of next week beginning Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  62  75  58 /  30  50  10   0
Victoria          83  58  70  52 /  50  50   0   0
Laredo            92  62  73  58 /  40  70  20  10
Alice             88  61  75  56 /  30  50  10   0
Rockport          82  62  75  60 /  30  50  10   0
Cotulla           85  61  73  57 /  60  60   0   0
Kingsville        88  61  74  58 /  20  40  10  10
Navy Corpus       82  64  76  63 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...WC/87