959
FXUS63 KDDC 100700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry and mild end to the workweek across southwest Kansas.

- Forecast trend is becoming more favorable for a wet weather
  pattern this weekend and next week.

- Probabilities of 0.5 inch of rain or more from late Saturday
  through mid Monday are increasing.

&&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

06Z surface observations and RAP upper air analysis has a large
upper low centered in Utah with west to southwest winds aloft
moving through the central plains. An area of PVA and 700 mb
shortwave has led to some light rain showers mainly in eastern
New Mexico and southeast Colorado. As the rain moves east with
lesser moisture at the surface we are just seeing a band of mid
level clouds moving into far western Kansas. Boundary layer
winds continue out of the north to northeast as a surface high
in central Wyoming and the clockwise flow around it is keeping
the winds northerly.

For today the surface high will slide into eastern Colorado and
this will lead to generally light north winds. Periods of mid to
high level clouds will move across southwest Kansas as we should
see some weak PVA and 700 mb lift across eastern Colorado and
southwest Kansas. Highs will reach into the 70s.

Tonight we shouldn`t see much movement with the upper low as it
will still be around the Utah-Arizona border. However southwest
winds at 500-700 mb and winds turning east to southeast in west
Texas will increase the moisture and upslope flow that we should
start to see a band of light rain develop in these regions.
Overall Kansas should stay dry as the winds will stay northerly
and the bulk of the higher surface moisture will stay to the
south. Clouds will be on the increase during the overnight hours
and we should see overcast skies in far southwest Kansas by
morning.

Saturday should start out dry and the latest trends in the short
and medium time framed models have the 700 mb low and increasing
moisture reaching far southwest Kansas after the noon hour. POPs
should increase after 18Z and by 21Z we will have 40-50% POPs
for areas from Liberal to Syracuse on west. Low amounts of CAPE
will negate any severe threat but there will be enough energy
for a few embedded thunderstorms. We could see rainfall totals
approaching 0.10 inch in the far southwest by sunset as Euro and
GEFS ensembles have 40-70% probabilities of 0.10 inch at
Elkhart by 00Z. More details on the widespread rain event for
southwest Kansas will be detailed in the long term.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak
ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead
to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. An upper level low will
spin above the four corners region through Saturday then trek
eastward over the area Sunday into the first part of next week.
As this low gets closer, weak disturbances may swing into the
area bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas.
Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Ensembles show
probabilities of over a 50 percent chance of a quarter of an
inch or more across the eastern half of the CWA Saturday night
through Monday morning. Temperatures throughout the long term
will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and
Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the first part of
next week. Lows will start out in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Near 100% probability of VFR flight category for all terminals
during the time period. A band of mid level clouds will lower
ceilings to around 15 kft through the overnight and mid morning
hours. Winds in general will be 5-12 kts sustained with a few
gusts as high as 15 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro