829
FNUS73 KDLH 061001
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for 65/73 RX...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
501 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 06.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Southeasterly 20-foot winds remain 10-12 mph today, while transport
winds increase from 17 mph this morning to 22 mph this afternoon.
Minimum relative humidity this afternoon is forecast to drop to the
upper-20% range although there is a 30% chance that the minRH drops
to 25% at the fire site. A wetting rainfall is not expected at the
fire site until Tuesday morning that lasts into Tuesday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (80200-90800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MC  MC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  64  67  68  70  69  68
RH..............48  40  36  32  28  29  34
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..9   10  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.16  18  19  19  19  19  18
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.17  18  18  20  20  20  22
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100080  86  88  91  90  87  82

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (70100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    fair (10700-16500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     61     53     51     50     49
RH..............37     44     52     61     68     71
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 13  SE 16  SE 15  SE 13  SE 15
20 ft wind gust.18     21     23     23     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   1100   900    800    900    900
Transport wind..SE 22  SE 17  SE 18  SE 17  SE 16  SE 16
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100070     17     14     13     13     13

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 14 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 26 mph shifting to the east
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15500-20600 knot-ft) increasing to good
                    (30800-49900 knot-ft) early in the morning,
                    then decreasing to fair (26800 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.50 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     60     80     90     90     80
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     53     59     59     59     58
RH..............74     74     67     67     69     69
20 ft wind......E 17   E 19   SE 20  E 20   E 19   E 16
20 ft wind gust.26     28     30     29     27     23
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1600   1900   1800   1700   1700
Transport wind..SE 18  SE 26  SE 29  SE 29  SE 24  E 21
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100016     36     48     45     36     31

$$
Forecaster...Nathan
Requested by...Jon Knapper
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413227.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathon.knapper@usda.gov