Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FNUS53 KDTX 161949
FWFDTX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Michigan
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
349 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...Red Flag Warning for a portion of SE MI through this
evening as RH values drop to around 25 percent. Moisture will
increase tonight through Wednesday as a low pressure system pulls a
warm front up toward the area tonight spreading showers across
southern MI. Showers and thunderstorms will then pass through the
area Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Drier
air behind the cold front will lead to a mainly dry Thursday with RH
values dropping into the 50 percent range, but another cold front
will that evening will bring additional showers to the area into the
overnight.

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-162115-
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Including the cities of Midland-Bay City-Saginaw-Owosso-Flint
349 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until 11 pm, then chance of rain
                    showers until 2 am, then showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms. Chance of
                    precipitation 90 percent.
Min temperature.....44-50.
   24 hr trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........78-87 percent.
   24 hr trend......3 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......590-790 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (65).
Pcpn amount.........0.11-0.25 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2 pm,
                    then showers and chance of thunderstorms.
                    Chance of precipitation 100 percent.
Max temperature.....60-66.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Min humidity........62-72 percent.
   24 hr trend......40 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph becoming south early in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2340-2840 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph becoming southwest early
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (630).
Pcpn amount.........0.26-0.50 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 11 pm. Chance of rain
                    showers until 2 am. Chance of precipitation 30
                    percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Max humidity........84-93 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......West 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......970-1170 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (98).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....60-64.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........47-57 percent.
   24 hr trend......15 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3770-4270 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (405).
Pcpn amount.........None.


$$

MIZ049-054-055-062-162115-
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-Lapeer-
Including the cities of Bad Axe-Caro-Sandusky-Lapeer
349 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 11 pm until 2 am, then rain
                    showers. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Min temperature.....42-46.
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........77-87 percent.
   24 hr trend......10 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......East 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......960-1160 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (53).
Pcpn amount.........0.11-0.25 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2 pm, then showers. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms after 5 pm. Chance of
                    precipitation 90 percent.
Max temperature.....56-62.
   24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
Min humidity........62-72 percent.
   24 hr trend......37 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1360-1860 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 25 mph becoming south early in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (363).
Pcpn amount.........0.26-0.50 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2 am. Chance of precipitation 40
                    percent.
Min temperature.....44-50.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........90-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......13 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph becoming west after
                    midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......840-1040 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (63).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....58-62.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........54-64 percent.
   24 hr trend......11 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West 15 to 20 mph becoming southwest around 10
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3500-4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (378).
Pcpn amount.........None.


$$

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-162115-
St Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Port Huron-Howell-Pontiac-Warren-Ann
Arbor-Detroit-Adrian-Monroe
349 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until 11 pm, then chance of rain
                    showers until 2 am, then showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms. Chance of
                    precipitation 90 percent.
Min temperature.....46-50.
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........87-97 percent.
   24 hr trend......14 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......510-710 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (31).
Pcpn amount.........0.11-0.25 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2 pm, then showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 100
                    percent.
Max temperature.....64-70.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........59-69 percent.
   24 hr trend......30 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph becoming south early in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2840-3340 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 25 mph becoming southwest early in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (986).
Pcpn amount.........0.26-0.50 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 11 pm. Chance of rain
                    showers until 2 am. Chance of precipitation 30
                    percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
   24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
Max humidity........85-95 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1050-1250 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (57).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....64-70.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........46-56 percent.
   24 hr trend......10 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3570-4070 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest early in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (372).
Pcpn amount.........None.


$$


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds around
15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 50.
West winds around 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. West winds around 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper
50s.

$$

DRK
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