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000
FXUS63 KDVN 190537
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Frost Advisory has been issued for parts of eastern Iowa
  from 1 AM tonight to 8 AM Friday morning. Temperatures are
  forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s.

- There will be several chilly nights through the weekend period
  with the potential need for additional frost/freeze
  advisories or warnings.

- Another storm system is forecast to move across the area
  Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a good chance for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are slowly lifting
northeastward across the southern half of eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois this afternoon. There are thunderstorms
occurring south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. Today was
cooler with temperatures generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s
across the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will exit to the east of the area late
this afternoon into the early evening hours. High pressure will
quickly build into the area through the day on Friday. This will
cause skies to quickly clear tonight from west to east and allow
winds to slowly weaken across the area. Low temperatures on
Friday morning will range from the lower 30s north and west of a
line from Vinton to Bellevue Iowa as well as in Iowa County. A
frost advisory has been issued for this area from 1 AM to 8 AM
on Friday. Think that winds will weaken enough that it will
allow temperatures to quickly drop tonight. Low temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s are expected across the remainder of
eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri.

Sunny skies are expected on Friday with high temperatures
ranging from the mid 50s along the Highway 20 corridor to the
upper 50s to the south. Expect gusty west winds to develop on
Friday especially north of Interstate 80 with some gusts up to
30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday night through Monday we will see dry conditions. The
main focus for this time frame will be chilly nights on Saturday,
and Sunday nights. Models suggest we will have zonal flow
aloft, along with a large area of high pressure that will settle
across the central CONUS. Confidence in frost Friday
night/Saturday morning is a bit lower, as we will be contending
with stronger winds and cloud cover in some parts of our area,
which should inhibit radiational cooling/frost development.
However, confidence is much higher for a freeze Saturday
night/Sunday morning, with more ideal radiational cooling
conditions. In fact, the NBM probabilities of low temperatures
at or below freezing Saturday night/Sunday morning are between
70 to 100 percent across northeastern Iowa. Be on the lookout
for any frost/freeze headlines issued this weekend!

A mid-level shortwave is progged to move through the area
Monday night and Tuesday. Per the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble low
tracks, an attendant surface low will translate north of our
region during that time, as it pulls some decent moisture
northward. At this time, it appears to be mainly showers with
perhaps some isolated storms with it. After the system passes
through, dry conditions are likely to prevail through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period as winds are the main
concern for aviation. Winds should increase after daybreak and
gust into the upper 20 kt range during the day. After the
sun sets expect winds to slacken and gusts to drop off.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Gibbs/Uttech/Wilson