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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221114
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost expected early this morning with temperatures
  falling to 33-35 degrees in parts of the area. Temperatures
  will rise quickly after sunrise.

- Gusty winds this afternoon could gust as high as 40 mph from
  the south

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night across
  northern Missouri. No severe weather is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Another chilly night is in store for our forecast area thanks to
surface high pressure still effecting the area. Winds have calmed
overnight and clear skies have helped the temperatures to plummet.
Widespread mid to upper 30s can be expected across the area,
with the coldest conditions expected across our eastern forecast
area where temperatures may fall as low as 33-35 degrees. This
will allow for patchy frost formation especially in low lying
area. A frost advisory has been issued for our eastern forecast
area including Chillicothe, Kirksville, Boonville, and Sedalia
through 8am. Temperatures are expected to warm quickly after
sunrise as winds turn to the south advecting in much warmer air.
Additionally, gusty winds can be expected this afternoon as the
pressure gradient increases. Winds out of the south could gust
as high as 35-40 mph. Gusty winds combined with relative
humidity falling to around 30% may lead to a few hours of
elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.

By the evening, a mid level shortwave will traverse the High
Plains headed toward the Great Lakes, sending a frontal boundary
through our area. This will spark shower and thunderstorm
potential overnight into Tuesday morning (mainly north of I-70).
Rainfall amounts are expected to be generally light and around
or less than a quarter of an inch.

Rain moves out on Tuesday and warm temperatures return with highs
reaching near 70 across the forecast area. Dry weather but slightly
cooler conditions can be expected on Wednesday as the winds turn
briefly back to the north. Afternoon highs should top out in the
upper 60s. Ridging overhead can be expected on Thursday ahead of the
next shortwave pushing east out of the Rockies. Winds turn southerly
drawing in warm and moist air into the Plains. As the system tracks
east, expect for shower and thunderstorm to develop west of the
area, shifting east Thursday night. While some stronger storms could
be possible Thursday night, a better chance for severe weather comes
on Friday as the system lifts northeast, dragging a front through
the forecast area. While there is still differences amongst models
this far out, it looks as though there will be ample
instability and shear for strong and severe storms Friday. Still
seeing some differences in timing, which will become more clear
in the coming days. Warm conditions are expected to continue
into the weekend with highs reaching the 80s Saturday and Sunday
for many. Additional waves may bring several rounds of
precipitation through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period but
wind will be the primary aviation concern through the day.
Southwest winds will increase after sunrise, with afternoon
winds sustained around 20 kts, gusting to 35 kts. Southwest
winds will remain elevated through sunset, after which, winds
will slightly relax. SCT high clouds will persist this morning,
increasing to BKN through the midday and the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ007-008-016-
     017-022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Kurtz