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000
FXUS63 KEAX 132322
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through the middle of next
  week

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
  Tuesday; potential for some strong to severe storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As the surface ridge axis has pushed to the east of Missouri, winds
have shifted to the south. This will result in temperatures
expected to range from the low to mid 80s which is 15-20 degrees
above normal temperatures. With a strengthening lee-side
surface trough in the High Plains, breezy conditions are
anticipated through the remainder of the afternoon. This is due
to tighter pressure gradient with the surface high to the
southeast. Wind gusts are expected to gust as high as 30-35 mph
with stronger gusts staying south of Interstate 70. This will
help to amplify the warm, moist air advection from the Gulf. A
weak surface trough will move south into the area Sunday,
reducing winds.

Our focus turns to Monday as a closed mid to upper level low moves
over the Rocky Mountains. Guidance has significantly slowed down the
progression of the low compared to earlier model runs. This will be
significant in regards to the timing of the potential strong to
severe thunderstorms possible for Monday evening into Tuesday. SPC
has a slight risk of severe weather for west of a line from Grant
City to Butler. East of that line is a marginal risk and there is a
slight risk for eastern Missouri. With southerly winds pushing warm,
moist air from the Gulf into the area, dew points are expected to
reach the low 60s. There will also be a good amount of shear out
ahead of the shortwave into the evening and overnight hours such
that if we are able to see storms, the could become severe. The GFS
and the NAM vary significantly on the CAPE values for this
timeframe. The GFS ranges CAPE values from 2,000-2,500 J/kg while
the NAM stays around 200-700 J/kg. This is mainly due to the
strength of the cap/ amount of warm air aloft. This will be one of
the determining factors for thunderstorm development Monday. We will
continue to monitor this system to see how the models progress it.

SPC also has all of Missouri outlooked on Day 4 for a 15% chance of
severe with the same system. Thunderstorm development for Tuesday
will largely dependent on what transpires on Monday night. With the
system slowing down, that leads to a greater potential for severe
weather late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. The surface
front may be right on the KS/MO state line at 18Z Tuesday. With the
upper shortwave taking on a negative tilt, the upper flow will
become strongly diffluent leading greater upward vertical motions.
Instability again varies between models but given the strong forcing
and wind fields, even modest instability will support some potential
for severe weather. As the associated surface front passes through
Wednesday morning, cooler, drier air will result in high
temperatures in the low 70s. Late Wednesday into Thursday morning
another shortwave is expected to push through resulting in another
chance for some showers. As winds shift to the northwest again with
the passage of the associated surface front, high temperatures will
be closer to normal heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the Forecast period. Winds will
be gusty and out of the west into the overnight, before
eventually decreasing in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB/Collier
AVIATION...HB