Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251002
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

Updated to add SPECIAL FEATURES section

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell West of Baja California Norte:
Large NW swell will maintain 12 to 15 ft seas north of 25N from
the Offshore waters of Baja California Norte to 125W through
late this afternoon. As the NW swell starts to decay early this
evening, seas are going to drop below 12 ft later this evening.

Mariners, especially local fishermen need to monitor these
dangerous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly.
Please refer to the High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php of more
detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from the coastal border of
Panama and Colombia to 08N105W, then turns southwestward to
00N133W. An ITCZ continues westward from 00N133W to beyond 01N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from 02N
to 09N between 83W and 106W, and from 02N to 08N between 111W
and 127W. No significant convection is seen near the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section about Significant
Swell.

A low to mid-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Baja California
Norte and over the northern Gulf of California. A 1033 mb, large
dome of high pressure is channeling fresh to strong NW winds
west of Baja California, and south of Cabo San Lucas. Large NW
swell is producing 8 to 11 ft west of Baja California Sur.
Westerly gap winds at strong to near-gale force are present at
the northern Gulf of California, while fresh to strong are noted
at the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas are at 4 to
7 ft across the entire Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W
to NW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the
central and southern Mexico offshore waters, except fresh to
strong at the western Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a large dome of high pressure over the eastern
Pacific will continue to channel fresh to strong NW winds across
the waters west of Baja California, and near Cabo San Lucas
through this morning. Strong to near-gale force gap winds at the
Gulf of California are expected to subside to between gentle and
moderate by late this morning, then become fresh to strong for
tonight. In addition, large NW swell is going to sustain very
rough to high seas off Baja California Norte, and rough to very
rough seas off Baja California Sur through this evening.
Afterward, seas at both areas should subside to between moderate
and rough by Tue. Farther south, fresh to strong winds are
expected at the western Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning,
and near Cabo Corrientes from early Tue morning through Wed. In
the long term, a gap wind event is forecast to begin at the Gulf
of Tehuantepec on Thu and might reach gale force.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Modest convergent southerly winds are generating scattered
moderate convection south of the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the
offshore waters of Latin America, Ecuador and Colombia.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are anticipated to linger near the Galapagos Islands and well
offshore from Panama through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire
region through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap winds near the
Papagayo area and Gulf of Panama will steadily increase.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section about Significant
Swell.

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1033 mb high
pressure near 31N146W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This
feature is channeling fresh to strong winds north of 25N between
120W and 125W. For the remaining area north of 20N between
120W/115W and 140W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 7
to 9 ft in moderate NW to N swell exist. Tight pressure gradient
between the high and ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE winds
and seas of 8 to 11 ft from 10N to 20N west of 123W. Moderate
with locally fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
noted elsewhere west of 110W and north of the ITCZ/equatorial
trough. Gentle with locally moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the remainder of the Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure will begin to weaken later
this morning, allowing winds north of 25N between 120W and 127W
to decrease through this afternoon. For the same reason, winds
from 10N to 20N and west of 120W are expected to gradually
subside this evening through Tue morning. As the NW to N swell
starts to decay this evening, seas north of 10N and west of 120W
should slowly subside late tonight through Wed.

$$

Chan


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.