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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250523
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1123 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Windy conditions are expected through Saturday with the strongest
winds on Thursday and Saturday. It will still be breezy on
Sunday, but more tranquil but warm conditions are expected for
next week. Eastern areas have a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm starting Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

It is a quiet afternoon. Southern NM and Far West TX is sitting
beneath the back-side of a ridge with plenty of high clouds
feeding in from the southwest. This will keep us warm and tranquil
through tonight, but that changes quickly for tomorrow. A s/w
trough off the Southern CA coast will swing eastward overnight
tonight causing an H500 jet to eject over our CWA toward morning,
continuing northeast into the afternoon, beginning to exit by
evening. Meanwhile at the surface, a >990 mb low will deepen over
eastern CO with strengthening Pacific front to help pack the
gradients even further. If you`ve read these AFDs before, you know
that means a windy day is upon us. Looking at NBM probability and
forecast soundings, top gusts look to range 45 to 60 MPH, with
the strongest winds along the east slopes of the San Andres-Organs
and higher elevations of the Sacs. Thus, the current wind
headlines look good. The only zone I am a bit unsure about is East
El Paso, where NBM places 50 knots right at the 50th percentile
with 53 knots at 75%. Last event, top gusts fell short of the 75th
percentile, making me less confident in the probabilities I`m
seeing. Ultimately, what broke the tie for me to keep it an
advisory was looking at the GFS forecast sounding, which usually
is really good at predicting top gusts for east slope locations.
It shows a top gust at 46 knots. Nevertheless, any uptick in
guidance would probably warrant an upgrade to a warning. I will
let future shifts take a look at that.

On Friday we will see a minor lull in wind as this first system
kicks out and Saturday`s approaches. We will still be at the base
of the long-wave trough though keeping moderate flow aloft and a
>1000 mb low over the OK Panhandle. Winds will remain breezy to
low-end windy for Friday. Then, on Saturday, the second impulse
arrives further deepening the surface low with a 990 mb low over
SW KS and a 85+ knot H500 jet. NBM probabilities for Saturday are
just a touch under Thursdays, but operational GFS is a touch
stronger. Thus, more wind products will likely be needed. With
current headlines in place, I will forego issuing any now, but
east slopes of the Tularosa basin and portions of the Sacs could
already support a high wind watch otherwise. This system will also
bring low-end precip chances to our mountains, especially the
Gila.

Saturday`s system departs setting the stage for quieter
conditions. We`ll still be on the backside of the trough Sunday
keeping us breezy, but by Monday ridging will build first over us
before shifting more to our east. Southwest flow aloft will set-up
allowing us to warm well above normal. The dryline game begins on
Tuesday with a chance for showers and storms east of the dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with breezes continuing.
High clouds linger but will decrease in coverage becoming SKC
after 18Z. Winds start to increase around 15Z and heading into the
mid afternoon hours but by around 21Z, our max winds will be
seen. Peak wind gusts at KELP could reach up near 50 MPH. Dust
issues expected tomorrow for KELP with visibilities potentially
getting down to 1-2SM. KLRU and KDMN could see some issues but
confidence not as high compared to KELP. Dust should be lofting up
in the early afternoon with the worst dust issues being around
mid afternoon and will continue until sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

THURSDAY...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL...An active fire
weather pattern is upon us. Winds will increase tomorrow while min
RH values fall into the single-digits. RFTI values of 5-7 are
expected. The Gila is included within the Red Flag, but given
wetter fuels and RFTI of 5, conditions are more marginal there.
Winds look to top out 25 to 35 MPH area wide. Vent rates will be
excellent.

FRIDAY...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL...For Friday, winds
decrease but with min RH values falling into the lower teens.
Winds will range 17 to 22 MPH, so locally critical conditions will
be met, especially across Sierra County. At this time though, it
appears less than half of each lowland zone will meet critical
conditions. No fire headlines will be issued for this shift, but
any increase in winds may warrant issuance with future updates.
Vent rates will be excellent.

SATURDAY...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL...Winds will increase again
on Saturday for the entire area, especially east slopes and higher
elevations, ranging 20 to 30 MPH. Temperatures will cool, however,
helping to improve RH values, especially in higher elevations and
locations west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). Areas along the
RGV, Tularosa Basin, and into West Texas will have the highest
probability for critical conditions, so a fire weather watch has
been issued. Portions of Zone 111, mainly Luna Co, look to meet
criteria as well, but I`m not confident enough a significant
portion of the fire zone will meet criteria to include it in the
watch.

REST OF PERIOD...We enter a stretch of quieter weather. It will be
very dry and warm Sunday onward, but winds look to fall short of
any critical thresholds. Elevated conditions will be possible on
Sunday as winds top out around 15 MPH, but no critical conditions
are anticipated Sunday onward at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  83  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               58  82  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               56  81  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               44  57  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              46  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   52  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       64  83  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                54  87  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             59  90  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  78  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  87  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  81  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  81  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            54  78  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    54  80  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 57  79  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                56  80  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  50  70  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  68  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 46  68  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  45  68  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                49  74  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                50  76  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  67  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  70  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               46  68  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   51  76  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  52  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           51  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-406>411-
     414-417-426-428-429.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ415-416-
     427.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NMZ112.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt