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Spot Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 231714
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Sixteen Springs RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1114 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

ELEVATED fire weather conditions can be expected
for today with RH being the main driver for any fire weather concerns.
Temperatures will be 2 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday with
Min RH values at or below 15 percent areawide. Generally terrain
drive and drainage regime-like flows during the morning and evening
hours with west winds of 10-20 mph during the late morning and afternoon
hours. Deep mixing will lead to Excellent smoke ventilation rates during
the afternoon. Similar conditions on Wednesday with slightly higher winds.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 12 mph.
Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (178100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............72     77     78
RH..............15     11     10
20 ft wind......W 10   W 12   W 12
20 ft wind gust.22     22     23
Mix hgt (ft)....9000   9900   9900
Transport wind..W 22   W 22   W 22
Haines index....5      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..178    188    188
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in
                    the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 19 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (152700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (10400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........3      3      5      6      6      18
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............75     65     59     56     53     51
RH..............11     16     20     22     26     28
20 ft wind......W 10   W 10   W 9    SW 8   SW 8   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.23     23     20     18     18     17
Mix hgt (ft)....7600   7600   600    600    600    600
Transport wind..W 20   W 20   W 21   SW21   SW 19  SW 19
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..153    153    11     11     10     10
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 21
                    mph shifting to the southwest around 12 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph increasing to around 23
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38300 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (171900 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........23        24        48        63
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............49        60        72        77
RH..............31        26        16        11
20 FT wind......W 6G12    SW 8G21   S 12G23   SW 12G24
Mix hgt (ft)....3500      3500      9100      9200
Transport wind..W 12      W 12      SW 20     SW 23
Haines index....3         3         3         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38        38        172       180
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...BARHAM
Requested by...Dana Chinander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412009.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
