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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 131630
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Sixteen Springs RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1030 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Prevailing southwest winds this weekend, peaking during the
evening hours with gusts up to 30 mph both tonight and Sunday.
Humidity falling further on Sunday with extremely dry conditions.
Winds increasing significantly out of the southwest Monday
afternoon as a Pacific low swings across the central Rockies. Red
Flag conditions through much of Monday afternoon with peak gusts
50-60 mph and RH 10-15%. Conditions remain dry the rest of the
week, through winds become lighter again. No precipitation
expected through next week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 16 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 32 to 33 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (155500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........3      9      36     36
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............64     68     69     68
RH..............16     13     13     14
20 ft wind......W 17   W 16   W 17   W 17
20 ft wind gust.32     31     31     31
Mix hgt (ft)....5900   5900   6600   6600
Transport wind..W 32   W 32   W 33   W 33
Haines index....4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..156    156    182    182
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (138700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (9400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........50     50     28     9      9      16
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     57     53     52     50     48
RH..............15     23     29     29     29     30
20 ft wind......SW 13  SW 13  SW 6   SW 8   SW 8   W 12
20 ft wind gust.30     30     13     18     18     22
Mix hgt (ft)....5300   5300   600    600    600    600
Transport wind..SW 21  SW 21  W 17   W 17   W 25   W 25
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..139    139    9      9      12     12
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........7 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 11 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (39400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (100100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........41        51        54        55
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............46        56        69        72
RH..............29        18        9         7
20 FT wind......W 13G24   W 12G26   W 11G22   W 12G23
Mix hgt (ft)....2000      2000      5200      5700
Transport wind..W 23      W 23      W 22      W 20
Haines index....5         4         4         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..39        39        88        100
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Breezy, clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West
winds around 26 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Matt Barone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410620.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov