Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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294 FXUS64 KEWX 071935 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A weak surface boundary has dropped southward into the area into this afternoon. This boundary could waver back and forth over the region into this evening before fizzling. This combined with the daytime heating reaching near or above the convective temperature may possibly yield to an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop across the Hill Country. If a storm is able to form, convective parameters with CAPE exceeding 3500 J/kg along with effective bulk wind shear above 50 knots could result in a storm becoming severe. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy downpours would be primary concern with a storm, if it develops. If any cells do develop, they should quickly dissipate by around 10 pm with the increase in convective inhibition. Again, vast majority of South- Central Texas will see no rain this evening. Otherwise, it will remain very warm and humid as the afternoon highs, which top out within the upper 80s and 90s only fall into the low to mid 70s overnight. The dryline advances eastward into Wednesday afternoon and should get close to the highway 281 corridor. For locations following the dryline on the western side should anticipate a hot but dry heat with westerly winds. Del Rio International looks to threaten the daily high temperature record of 103 set back in 1967. To the east of the dryline, it will be hot and humid with the afternoon highs into the 90s and peak heat indices up into the 100 to 105 degree range for areas along and east of I-35. Capping inversion looks to hold for most on Wednesday with the only area to watch within our region being across our northeastern most counties. The greater forcing along with severe potential looks to maintain just to the northeast of our CWA within the FWD and HGX CWA`s, where SPC is pinpointing the higher risk level. We`ll closely monitor but will keep the forecast dry for now. Another warm and humid night is otherwise expected Wednesday night with the overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The upper level flow over TX will be southwesterly with a strongly tilted trough over the western half of the country at the start of the long term period. A cold front will move through South Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a low chance for rain to the northeastern part of the CWA. More significantly it will bring relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over the weekend. The upper trough will close off over the Four Corners region Saturday kick out into the southern Plains Sunday. A shortwave trough will move through this pattern. This bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. The better chances will be Sunday with the shortwave overhead. The main trough will swing through Monday and there may be another chance for convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR flight conditions are to return to all sites over the next few hours. There is the slight possibility for convection late this afternoon into this evening across the Hill Country but any storm activity should remain away from the TAF sites. However, we`ll closely monitor and make any adjustments later today if this is expected to change. Low stratus develops overnight into Wednesday morning with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Some minor visibility reduction will be possible as well. The conditions improve to VFR entering Wednesday afternoon for the I-35 sites, and Wednesday morning at KDRT as the dryline advances eastward. Modest south to east- southeasterly winds will generally trend. The only exception is westerly winds Wednesday morning at KDRT behind the dryline. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 92 73 89 / 10 10 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 92 71 89 / 10 10 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 95 72 92 / 10 0 0 20 Burnet Muni Airport 73 92 70 87 / 20 10 0 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 105 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 91 72 87 / 20 10 0 30 Hondo Muni Airport 73 99 71 97 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 93 72 91 / 10 0 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 91 74 89 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 96 74 94 / 10 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 75 99 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...05 Aviation...Brady