Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240528 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Low clouds from the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor continue to
thin this afternoon as a band of upper level clouds moves in from
the northwest. Early afternoon temperatures across south-central
Texas range from the lower 60s in the Hill Country to the mid 70s
over the Rio Grande plains. Clouds should not have a significant
impact on temperatures and highs are still on track to peak from
near 70 to the lower 80s.

Surface low development over east/northeast Colorado along with a
high pressure ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico will allow for
southeast winds overnight into Sunday. Gusty conditions are likely
to continue through the overnight hours across the Rio Grande
plains, southern Edwards Plateau and higher terrain of the Hill
Country. With moisture returning in the lower-levels of the
atmosphere, low clouds will develop and/or spread northward into the
region mainly after Midnight. The added moisture along with some
brief weakening of winds early Sunday morning could promote patchy
fog development in the coastal plains. We can`t completely rule out
an isolated shower over the Hill Country and southern Edwards
Plateau Sunday morning. For now, chances are low and will not
mention in the forecast. Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy skies and
gusty south to southeast winds on Sunday. Winds over the higher
terrain of the Hill Country may briefly approach the Wind Advisory
threshold of 26 MPH sustained. For now, we will hold off as any
occurrence of this should be brief and isolated. Highs will range
from near 70 in the Hill Country to the lower 80s along the Rio
Grande.

As we head into Sunday night, the pattern begins to become a little
more active as an upper level trough sharpens to our west. A lead
shortwave along with a very strong (150-170kt) upper jet will move
out of Mexico into western Texas Sunday evening and overnight. As
the above features interact with the dryline in place over west-
central Texas, convection is expected to initially develop during
the very late evening hours on Sunday over the Edwards Plateau. As
the dryline is forced eastward by an advancing Pacific front,
additional convection will likely develop and move into the Hill
Country early Monday morning. While the threat for severe weather
should largely remain north of our region, the southern Edwards
Plateau and far western Hill Country are under a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe storms. This includes areas generally
along and north of a Rocksprings to Llano line. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main severe weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Monday morning, showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along a
cold front somewhere in the eastern Hill Country or along the I-35
corridor. In all likelihood this will be a somewhat thin band of
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms, with larger- scale mid-
level lift trailing too far to the west to provide much help.
Instability is forecast to be limited, mainly <1000 J/kg, with deep
layer shear becoming increasingly oriented parallel to the boundary.
No severe weather is currently expected with this morning activity,
which will likely exit our eastern counties in the 11am-1pm time
frame. Any rainfall amounts Monday morning will likely be 0.5" or
less. A sunny afternoon will follow with seasonal highs in the 70s to
low 80s.

With some drier air in the region behind the cold front, lows
Tuesday morning will be cooler, in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs
Tuesday and Wednesday will likely only reach the upper 60s over
northeastern areas, but some locations southwest of San Antonio will
still reach the low 80s. The upper trough remains in place across
the south-central CONUS through the middle of the week, finally
beginning to move east on Wednesday. It may provide a chance for
additional showers and a few storms during the day mainly for
northern portions of the region, but widespread or heavy
precipitation appears unlikely.

Southerly flow will settle in Thursday and Friday behind this system
as a broad mid-level ridge develops over the central CONUS. This
will bring a warm-up and a gradual increase in moisture into the
weekend. By Friday, look for highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s,
and likely some 90s near the Rio Grande by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

In general, expect VFR cigs through the night as mid to high level
clouds at 040 to 250 slide through the area. After 10Z, MVFR cigs
develop at all sites, with SAT and SSF starting first at 11Z,
followed by DRT at 12Z and AUS at 13Z. DRT may briefly go IFR from
15Z through 18Z before a rapid improvement after 19Z to VFR. Visby`s
shouldn`t be an issue through this TAF period, but that may change
on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR ceilings return by midday
followed by gusty south to south winds throughout the day Sunday.
MVFR cigs should return by 03-04Z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  60  77  48 /  10  60  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  59  76  46 /  10  60  40   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  60  79  48 /   0  40  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  57  75  43 /   0  80  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  58  80  54 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  59  75  44 /   0  80  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  60  80  49 /   0  40   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  59  77  47 /   0  50  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  62  75  49 /   0  30  60   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  62  79  51 /   0  50  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  63  80  52 /   0  40  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...27
Aviation...MMM


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