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000
FXUS62 KFFC 160806
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today, a strong upper level ridge will set up over the Southeast,
with its axis becoming centered over Georgia in the afternoon hours.
As a surface high over northeast Florida similarly moves to the
east, low-level winds will shift to primarily southerly by this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move across the
Great Plains to the north of the ridge pattern. As a cold front
extending southward of the low moves eastward towards the
Mississippi River Valley, increased upper level cloud coverage will
begin to spread into north Georgia. Southerly winds will be
strongest across northwest Georgia as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the approaching front. Here, wind speeds will range from 10-
15 mph in the afternoon, as opposed to 6-12 mph elsewhere across the
forecast area. In spite of the increased upper level cloud cover,
subsidence under the ridge will lead to another day of well above
average temperatures, with morning lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s
and afternoon highs rising into the mid 80s. Relative humidity
values in portions of north and west Georgia this afternoon are
forecast to drop to minimums of around 25 percent in portions of
north and west Georgia this afternoon. Considering dry 10-hour fuels
after several days of dry conditions, locally stronger winds, and
minimum RH values bordering on critical fire danger thresholds, a
Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of far northwest
Georgia for this afternoon as a precaution.

By Wednesday morning, the low pressure system is expected to track
into the Great Lakes region, continuing to move north of the ridging
pattern remaining over the Southeast. As the parent low moves
northward into the Great Lakes, it will become occluded, limiting
the southeastward advance of the cold front and keeping the best
dynamics displaced well to the north of the forecast area. Scattered
and thunderstorms are expected to enter northwest Georgia by mid-
morning on Wednesday, eventually covering an area along and north of
the I-20 corridor. While surface-based instability will support
thunderstorms, with the strongest dynamics displaced to the north of
Georgia, widespread severe weather is not expected.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

At a glance:

    - Rain chances return for the weekend

    - Highs in the 80s likely through Saturday

As we enter the extended on Thursday, flow becomes quasi-zonal at
the mid-levels. The eastward movement of a closed low rotating
across central Canada will send several shortwaves (and accompanying
pulses of moisture) across the Southeast Friday through Sunday,
culminating in a full cold-frontal passage to kick off next week. As
a result, slight to low-end chance PoPs will linger across a
majority of the forecast area through the weekend. Like the system
on Wednesday, not expecting big things as far as precipitation
totals, and the multi-day total rainfall through the weekend
currently stands at less than a half of an inch.

From Monday on, high pressure moves back in at the surface, and the
mid-levels trend toward a more tranquil pattern. For now, it looks
like a dry start to the work week.

Highs will be quite warm through Saturday -- in the 80s areawide
-- which is as much as 8-14 degrees above average for late April.
 Lows will be comparatively warm, in the upper 50s to 60s. In the
 wake of the front on Monday, expect a return to more seasonable
 (trending toward unseasonably cool) temperatures: highs in the
 60s to lower- 70s, and lows in the upper-40s to 50s.


96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Upper
level clouds will increase in coverage and lower through the
morning hours, although ceilings are expected to remain at 15 kft
or above. Winds will be SW at 3-5 kts this morning, shifting to
nearly S (albeit remaining just on the W side of due S, on
average) at 5-10 kts by 15Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         84  62  79  63 /   0  10  20  10
Blairsville     81  60  74  58 /  10  10  30  20
Cartersville    86  62  79  61 /   0  10  30  10
Columbus        86  62  84  63 /   0   0  10  10
Gainesville     84  62  79  62 /  10  10  20  10
Macon           86  61  84  63 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            86  62  79  61 /   0  10  40  10
Peachtree City  86  62  81  61 /   0  10  10  10
Vidalia         87  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...King