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000
FXUS63 KFGF 152007
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions will develop late tonight through Tuesday.
  Gusts of 55 mph or greater can be expected at times within
portions of west-central and northwest Minnesota, particularly under
heavier showers and/or weak thunderstorms.

- There is a 50% chance for greater than one inch of rainfall
tonight through Tuesday night, Highest chances reside across
southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Upper level ridging over the Northern Plains ahead of an upper level
low over the Four Corners region is driving the weather the rest of
today. Upper divergence and mid level warm air advection is helping
scattered rain showers this afternoon into evening, although dry air
in the low levels is preventing or delaying rainfall. Overall,
amounts through tonight will be one or two tenths of an inch.

A stout low level jet (55+ kt at 900 mb) develops late tonight over
eastern ND into MN as the upper low and attendant surface low
pushes into the Central Plains tonight into Tuesday. Strong
winds just above the surface are expected to mix down to the
surface lee of higher elevation within west-central and portions
of northwest Minnesota through the help of downsloping,
allowing gusts over 45 mph out of the southeast. The low level
jet increases further to 60+ kt into the day Tuesday over this
same area as the low continues to deepen and strengthen, but
becomes more rooted at 850 mb. Similar downsloping influences
will continue during the day in these same areas, with the added
influence of heavier precipitation helping drag these very
strong winds toward the surface. Several CAMs indicate the
potential for heavier showers and/or weak thunderstorms to bring
brief 55-65 mph wind gusts. This may present itself in a
situation where warning-criteria (either non-thunderstorm or
severe thunderstorm) are present without a warning in place,
especially if this occurs in convection without lightning.
Regardless, a wind advisory is in effect for these locations for
Tuesday.

As the upper low pulls moisture around itself, widespread
rainfall chances envelop the region. Rainfall amounts between
0.25 inches and 1.0 inches can be anticipated. Best chances for
higher end amounts around 1.0 inches reside within the Devils
Lake basin where inverted trough stalls, as well as toward
west-central Minnesota closer to the feed of better
moisture/weak instability. A few localized areas exceeding 1.5
inches cannot be ruled out.

Getting into Wednesday, the upper low moves to the northeast
getting caught in a larger upper low within Canada. This larger
upper low will filter cooler, more seasonable temperatures into
the region, along with breezier conditions. At this time, precip
associated with this northern low remains largely confined in
Canada, although embedded waves rounding the base of the low
will bring additional, quick moving chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Scattered rain showers are forecast across the region through 06Z.
Low level wind shear is expected between 06-14Z, particularly
within southeast ND into west-central MN. Gusty east-southeast
winds over 20kt will remain in place after 12Z. Additional
chance for rain showers and weak thunderstorms come after 15Z
Tuesday, along with chance for lowered MVFR CIGs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ002-003-015-
     016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ