Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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993 FXUS63 KFGF 292012 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region Tuesday afternoon and again later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Upper low spinning over central MN continues to lift northeastward this afternoon, and should be in Ontario by tonight. This should allow some brief ridging to move in between systems. Weak surface ridging over the CWA will slowly give way so southeasterly winds at least on the ND side. Could see a bit of patchy fog/mist development even if clouds linger given recent visibility trends, although probabilities of less than a half a mile are under 10 percent. The quiet conditions will be short lived as another upper low moves into the northern Rockies tomorrow and ejects a strong lead shortwave into the eastern Plains. Southeasterly winds ahead of the surface trough should bring at least some marginally warmer temperatures tomorrow afternoon, and some of the ensemble members bring some CAPE up to 500 J/kg into our west central MN counties, but most are lower. There is the threat of some lightning impacts but all the updraft helicity tracks are well to our south and think our chances of seeing any stronger convection are less than 10 percent. The rain will lift northeastward into Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, with another quick break in precip rounds expected for mid-week. Thursday into Friday, the upper trough over the Rockies starts to kick out into the Plains and then lift off into Canada. There is still quite a bit of variation in the exact track of how the ensemble members handle the low. Probabilities of at least a quarter of an inch of rain are 30 to 40 percent across most of the CWA, so it seems like there will be a good chance for another wetting rain. For the weekend and into Monday, there continues to be a signal for a fairly active pattern, but timing is all over the place. One cluster is showing a trough at the same time as another cluster a ridge over the Plains. Thus, will keep the 20-30 POPs and near average temps the mean gives us. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions as light rain and drizzle along with some light mist continues over the forecast area. Some models indicate some fog developing later tonight, but confidence is not high as the upper system pulls away and it does not seem like we will get much clearing even with light winds. Will keep visibility in the 3-5SM range and not go any lower for now. Ceilings will be mostly in the MVFR to IFR range, then improve mostly to MVFR by the end of the period. Winds will be light and variable then pick up out of the southeast by Tuesday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR