Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271532
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
832 AM MST Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building into the region ushers in drier
and warmer weather through Friday. Unsettled weather returns by
the weekend and into early next week with the next winter storm.

&&

.UPDATE...Skies are mostly clear above Arizona this morning. The
exception is for areas in and around Gila County, where fog
remains persistent. The forecast was updated to extend the mention
of fog for a few hours. The rest of the forecast is in good shape.
Enjoy the light winds and comfortable temperatures today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...Today through Friday...Heights begin
to rise today as high pressure builds into Arizona from the west.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected as a result through
Friday. Winds generally remain light today, however increasingly
stronger winds are expected through Friday as the next storm
system approaches. By Friday, peak wind gusts around 30-40 kts
will be possible, especially downwind of the Mogollon Rim.

Saturday through Tuesday...A closed-low begins to drop southward off
the California coast on Saturday, winds increase further and become
more widespread with the increased pressure gradient from the low.
Moisture looks to increase as well, with areas of showers likely
developing late Saturday night into Sunday. The heaviest/most
intense period of precipitation looks to come on Sunday as the main
wave of upper-level dynamics moves into Arizona.

Temperatures also begin to fall Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
700mb temperatures start out around 0C to -2C, keeping snow levels
around 7500-8500 feet at the onset of preciptation. However, as
temperatures fall to around -4C to -6C aloft, snow levels also fall
to around 5500-6500 feet by Sunday morning. Some uncertainty remains
in the track and timing, so confidence in overall preciptation and
snowfall amounts isn`t too high at the moment. Latest NBM guidance
shows a >50% chance of 1 inch or more of snow above 5500 feet. Above
6500-7000 feet, NBM guidance has around a 60-80% chance of at least
2 inches and around a 50% chance of at least 4 inches of snow.

Showers look to remain on Monday as trough begins to open up, and
the trough axis pushes through Arizona. By Tuesday, operational
guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, and to some extent the GDPS point
towards a fragment of the trough breaking off into another closed-
low over Arizona/northern Sonora. This solution would likely keep
showers in the forecast for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 27/12Z through Thursday 28/12Z...VFR
conditions with mostly clear skies today and an increase in
mid/high clouds tonight. Winds west to northwest at 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 28/12Z through Saturday 30/12Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Southwest winds at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts on
Thursday afternoon, becoming 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and warmer.
West to southwest winds at 5-15 mph Wednesday increasing to 15-25
mph with gusts 30-35 mph on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Friday will remain dry. Southwest winds
strengthen to 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph Friday and Saturday.
Southwest winds will then remain elevated in eastern Arizona on
Sunday. Rain and snow returns late Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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