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000
FXUS64 KFWD 192015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA
315 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 134 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
/Through Saturday Night/

The cold front activating thunderstorms later yesterday in
central and eastern portions of the forecast area is now
positioned just south of the region with surface winds at all
sites from the north. Temperatures currently range from the upper
50s to lower 60s in the far north and in the lower 70s in the far
south. Most of the forecast area is mostly cloudy as the
atmosphere remains somewhat saturated in multiple layers aloft to
the north of the boundary. Some breaks in the clouds through the
afternoon are possible, especially in northern and far southern
zones. A few showers are possible in far southern to southeastern
zones this afternoon closer to the frontal boundary, but the onset
of another round of precipitation should hold off until late
tonight in a large majority of locations.

Starting tonight, the previous forecast seems mostly on track with
a weak disturbance embedded in the westerlies aloft approaching
north central Texas and imparting lift to the region along and
north of the boundary, which will likely stall near the far
southern border of the forecast area. There will be elevated
instability (i.e., based above the surface) available to support
increasing shower and scattered thunderstorm development late
tonight through the morning hours tomorrow. Some small, non-
severe, hail cannot be ruled out with these elevated storms. Any
potential for isolated severe storms (with mainly a hail and wind
threat) should be confined to far southern portions of the
forecast area midday tomorrow through tomorrow evening, closer to
the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall
tomorrow still looks to be the chief concern as the lift from the
aforementioned disturbance, combined with the elevated frontal
boundary and relatively high precipitable water values (~1.5
inches), produces thunderstorm capable of heavy downpours. The
entire forecast area is in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
tomorrow through tomorrow night with WPC most likely rainfall
expectations ranging from 1 to 2 inches. Short range ensemble
guidance suggests some locally higher amounts will be possible.
This rain could result in some pockets of flooding and will likely
result in some delayed river rises.

Otherwise, expect not much in the way of a diurnal range tomorrow
with clouds and rain on the north side of the surface front. Lows
tonight will range from the lower 50s north to lower 60s south
with highs tomorrow only 5 to 10 degrees above these marks.
Precipitation should be exiting to the east later tomorrow night
with lows by daybreak Sunday mainly ranging from the middle 40s to
lower 50s.

SHV / BB

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Through Next Friday/

The weather across North Central Texas will trend a lot more
favorable on Sunday as precipitation clears to the east, mainly
before daybreak. Clearing from north to south will lag the
precipitation clearing by several hours, but we do have confidence
that skies will range from mostly clear in the north to partly
cloudy in the south by early to mid afternoon. North winds will be
a bit breezy, but the previous rain should forgo much wildfire
concern. Highs will generally only range from 60 to 65 degrees,
which is at least 10 degrees below average for the date. The theme
of cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday night into
Monday with lows at daybreak Monday mainly in the 40s with highs
Monday afternoon mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will trend back to average on Monday night into
Tuesday as surface high pressure quickly exits to the east and
southerly low level flow commences. The warming trend will
continue through the midweek with lows in the mid 60s and highs at
least around 80 degrees by Wednesday night into Thursday. Current
long range blended model guidance suggests this warming trend will
continue into at least Friday. A weak disturbance passing well to
the north may get some isolated to widely scattered showers
(cannot rule out a few thunderstorms) going in the warm air
advection regime starting Tuesday night and going through
Thursday. Obviously clouds will be increasing over this time range
as well. NWP guidance still is lacking a strong consensus in
specifics of what will transpire across the forecast area starting
Thursday and going into the weekend as a parade of disturbances
push east from the Western CONUS starting toward the middle of
next week. The loose consensus is that one of these disturbances
will significantly brush north Texas by Friday, although it is
possible tangible impacts could begin a day earlier (and also last
well into the weekend). Needless to say, some severe weather
and/or heavy rain threat could manifest by the end of next week,
although any further details than this will likely have to wait
for better NWP consensus to be reached. SHV / 50

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Satellite imagery from early this afternoon continues to show
mostly cloudy skies across the region. As such, CIGs continue to
fluctuate between low VFR and MVFR for all terminals this morning.
The exception has been for KACT where MVFR CIGs have prevailed.
This will remain the case through the rest of the afternoon and
even into the evening hours. Currently CIGs range from around
020-040 for all the DFW airports while Waco Regional remains
around 020-025. Unfortunately, CIGs will only deteriorate as we
move into the evening and overnight hours with more widespread
MVFR CIGs settling in. Around 20/07z, we have introduced some IFR
CIGs at 009 for all the DFW airports with Waco falling to around
007. Otherwise, looks like some showers and maybe some drizzle
will move in for the DFW airports around 20/10z and have
introduced SHRA and VCTS for this time frame. /33/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  59  49  65  48 /  80  90  90   0   0
Waco                59  64  49  62  45 /  60  90 100   5   0
Paris               51  56  47  63  43 /  70  90  80   5   0
Denton              53  58  46  63  43 /  80  90  90   0   0
McKinney            54  58  48  64  44 /  80  90  90   0   0
Dallas              56  60  50  65  47 /  80  90  90   0   0
Terrell             55  59  48  63  44 /  80  90 100   5   0
Corsicana           59  64  50  63  46 /  70  90 100   5   0
Temple              61  67  49  62  46 /  40  90  90   0   0
Mineral Wells       54  59  46  64  44 /  80  90  90   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$