Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221834
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
134 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday afternoon/

Cool and cloudy conditions continue across the region as the main
upper level low responsible of yesterday`s rain move towards the
Mississippi Valley today. With the presence of sufficient lift
and wrap-around moisture over North Texas, isolated to scattered
showers will continue to develop through early this evening. Most
of the activity should remain light, but we can`t completely rule
out a thunderstorm or two. A second front currently over Oklahoma
is expected to arrive this evening, bringing one last round of
low clouds but much drier air behind it. This will help tonight`s
low temperature drop into the 40s across most locations.

Dry and seasonable conditions are forecast on Saturday. Winds
will slowly shift to the east in the afternoon with mostly clear
skies. High temperatures will range from the mid/upper 60s across
North Texas and low 70s across Central Texas.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 323 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/
/Saturday Night and Beyond/

The reinforcing cold front on Saturday will usher in a drier
airmass dropping surface dewpoints into the low to mid-50s along
the immediate Gulf Coast. As winds turn southerly in response to
pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies late Saturday into
Sunday, a period of return flow will begin ahead of the next
upper-level storm system. The degree of moisture return will play
a big part in the potential for severe weather in our forecast
area early next week. Isolated showers may develop across portions
of North Texas late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon on
the nose of greater theta-E advection.

By midday Sunday, a lead mid-level shortwave looks to eject over
the Southern Plains. Anomalously strong southerly winds will
increase to 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph at times Sunday into
Monday as a ~980 mb surface low develops over SE Colorado and
shifts east-northeastward. Current medium-range guidance is in
agreement that surface dewpoints in the mid- to upper 50s will
surge northward over North and Central Texas by Sunday afternoon.
Latest SREF guidance is unimpressed with the Sunday moisture
return with a ~30% chance that 60-degree dewpoints even make it
into our Central Texas counties. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop along an eastward-advancing dryline/Pacific front
late Sunday afternoon just west of our forecast area forming into
a line/broken line of thunderstorms as they push east over our
forecast area Sunday evening/night. Impressive wind fields would
suggest a severe weather threat, but with a lack of appreciable
low-level moisture and instability and cooling overnight
temperatures, storms may struggle to strengthen as they enter our
area. In fact, the best potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms looks to remain northwest of our forecast area where
steep mid-level lapse rates may lead to a narrow corridor of
1000-1500 J/kg CAPE as the shortwave trough axis shifts overhead
the dryline Sunday afternoon/evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will shift east through the overnight
and into Monday morning. With strong 40-50 kt winds just a few
thousand feet off the surface, we will need to monitor the
potential for gusty downburst winds in any stronger storms that
transit North and Central Texas. Greater moisture return is
expected Monday as a trailing shortwave trough shifts over West
Texas. Intensification of the line of thunderstorms is likely
Monday afternoon as this system`s actual cold front catches up to
the Pacific front. There may be a narrow window Monday afternoon
for a couple strong to severe thunderstorms in our far eastern
zones before they enter East Texas. Hail and strong winds would be
the main hazards. Another widespread 0.25"-0.75" of rainfall is
likely with this event with the greater potential for 1+" residing
east of I-35.

The cold front will have pushed through most of Central Texas by
Monday evening lending way to cooler/drier conditions for the
midweek period. Afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows in the mid-30s to mid-40s are expected Tuesday with
slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Low ceilings through this afternoon, then VFR the rest
of the period.

Widespread MVFR conditions persist across all TAF sites, but
improvement to VFR stratus is still expected around 20-21Z.
Latest radar imagery depicts isolated light rain/showers
developing across portions of North Texas. Coverage may increase
some through the afternoon, but will remain fairly scattered. The
potential for thunder with this activity is low or very isolated
to mention it in the TAFs. Conditions will continue to improve
this evening as the main weather system moves to the east. No
additional changes were made to the rest of the forecast as
guidance still show low probabilities of MVFR ceilings (10-20%)
between 02-06Z this evening with the second front. Winds will
gradually shift to the NE by mid morning Saturday and to the E in
the afternoon.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  69  56  70  59 /   5   0   0  10  70
Waco                48  69  56  71  59 /   0   0   0   0  60
Paris               44  67  49  66  57 /   0   0   0  10  60
Denton              43  67  53  69  55 /   5   0   0  20  70
McKinney            45  67  53  68  57 /   5   0   0  20  70
Dallas              48  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0  10  70
Terrell             46  68  54  69  58 /   0   0   0  10  70
Corsicana           49  70  56  72  61 /   0   0   0   5  60
Temple              49  72  55  73  59 /   0   0   0   0  60
Mineral Wells       45  69  54  73  53 /   0   0   0  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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