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000
FXUS65 KGGW 200858
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
258 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A warming trend this weekend will lead to seasonable
temperatures and mostly dry conditions over the next week.

2) Gusty winds and elevated fire weather concerns return by
Monday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A surface high pressure system has taken hold, bringing cool but
mostly clear and calm conditions. Winds increase again on Sunday,
initially with warm air advection out of the south and then
switching out of the west due to a cold frontal passage. The
associated shortwave trough with it will enhance mixing of mid-
level winds to the surface while lacking moisture. Gusty west to
northwest winds nearing high wind criteria become the primary
factor for fire weather considerations, particularly across the
southern zones on Monday with an overlap of minimum humidity in
the 20s. Afterward, mostly zonal flow favors quiet conditions
heading into the middle of next week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence is high for temperatures and the general wind pattern.
With regard to elevated fire weather conditions moving into red
flag criteria and location of any measurable rainfall Sunday
night into Monday, moderate confidence exists. No departures were
made from the NBM at this time, but the focus will be on the
accuracy of wind forecast values Sunday through Monday night.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: High pressure has moved in, resulting in quiet flying
conditions through tonight with mostly clear skies and light
winds.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow