Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261751
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1251 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds continue to diminish through the afternoon.

- Chance for flurries Wednesday morning.

- Dry with near normal temperatures for the end of the week.

- There is a low chance for precipitation (mainly rain) late
  Saturday night, with a better chance for a rain/snow mix
  Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Sky cover grids were tweaked downward slightly this afternoon
with mostly clear skies anticipated. Breezy northwest winds will
continue to slowly diminish.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The back edge of cloud shield from around York to Hebron will
exit the far eastern CWA shortly. It will remain breezy to windy
though through the morning. Patchy blowing snow can`t be ruled
out through the afternoon mainly across the central portion of
the CWA from Ord and Greely down through Blue Hill to Mankato
and Beloit. Winds are expected to diminish through the
afternoon, with any remaining blowing and/or drifting snow
ending by evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

As of 330am, the back edge of the snowfall stretches for near
Phillipsburg up to near Ord, and is making steady progress
eastward. Over the past hour, the heaviest bands are focusing
near and east of Highway 281, and this eastward trend should
continue. Nearly all model guidance has the entire area dry by
7am.

As snow moves out, visibility at automated sites has been
improving rather quickly. Broken Bow, Lexington, and Norton all
are at 6-7 mile visibility, which indicates some minor/patchy
blowing snow, but nothing significant enough to warrant
extension of the Blizzard Warning or Winter Weather Advisory.
These products are set to expire at 7am.

Winds will decrease through the day today as the surface
pressure gradient weakens substantially. Winds will go
light/variable by this evening, allowing some areas to dip into
the single digits tonight into Wednesday morning.

Many models indicate the potential for some light flurries
Wednesday morning as a broad upper trough crosses the central
CONUS. No snow accumulation is expected.

Surface winds return to the southwest on Wednesday as upper
level ridging pushes in from the west. Lingering clouds will
limit our warmup on Wednesday, and the snow cover will lead to a
wide range of afternoon temperatures. Some snow-covered areas
may only see the mid 30s, where mostly snow free areas in Kansas
reach the low 50s.

Thursday trends warmer across the entire area with continued
southwest surface winds. Highs are expected to be closer to our
climatological normals, but there could still be a wide range in
high temperatures (upper 40s to mid 60s from NW to SE).

A cold front moves through on Friday and turn winds back to the
northwest, but it will not bring much cold air with it. Highs on
Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s for
most.

A weak shortwave may bring some light precipitation (mainly to
our north) late Saturday night, but most spots will probably
miss out. A slightly better chance for precipitation arrives
with a more robust shortwave Sunday night through Monday. Even
so, some deterministic model runs keep us dry. Global ensembles
show a 50-60% chance for 0.10" of liquid in our north, but only
a 10-20% chance in our south. This could fall as a mixture of
rain and snow, but wintry impacts are unlikely, with the global
ensemble blend showing only a 10-20% chance (at best) for 1" of
snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Sunny skies to begin the 18Z TAF period. Breezy northwest winds
generally 15-25 knots are expected to gradually diminish through
the afternoon, and should become mainly light and variable by
early evening at both KEAR and KGRI. Look for an increase in mid
level clouds Wednesday morning and a few flurries can`t be ruled
out but uncertainty is too high at this time for any mention of
light snow/flurry activity. Surface flow does shift south by
Wednesday morning but will remain light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hamilton
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Hamilton


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