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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220801
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
201 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for the week.
  There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday in
  eastern Colorado.

- Chance for severe weather Thursday generally east of Highway
  283.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Today, warmer temperatures are forecast across the area in the 70`s
and 80`s with continued southerly flow. The 70`s are more likely
along and north of I-70 as satellite observations already show mid
to high could cover moving over the area. Also, the low pressure
system that is forecast to move through the area should be near the
I-70 corridor by the mid afternoon hours. This will shift winds to
out of the north on the backside which will begin to advect in some
cooler temperatures (albeit not very high in magnitude with a few
degree change during the day). The rest of the area will see
temperatures raise to 80 or the mid 80`s as the low and front are
forecast to pass through these areas during the evening hours. RH
along and south of Highway 40 could drop to near 15%, but the
presence of the surface low over the area is forecast to keep winds
from mixing their full potential and just lead to occasional gusts
near 25 mph. In regard to showers and storms, generally dry
conditions are going to keep chances around 15% to 20% from Flagler
to McCook and south where surface convergence along the boundary
could allow some showers and storms to spark. The most likely
scenario is elevated showers that produce virga or very light rain.
If surface dewpoints can begin to reach 45-50F along the front, then
there may be enough instability for some lightning (as MUCAPE would
increase close to 1000 J/KG instead of <250 J/KG). Severe weather is
unlikely (even in an increased CAPE scenario) and looks to only be
possible if the boundary stalls in a west/east orientation, a storm
forms, and has a long residency time on the boundary to form hail.
Any shower or storm that forms should dissipate before midnight as
the low and front are forecast to push south of the area. The rest
of the night would then see skies clear and temperatures lower into
the 30`s and 40`s.

Tomorrow, in the wake of the system and with slightly higher
pressure over the area, temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler
in the 60`s and 70`s. A mix of clouds and sun is forecast through
the day as 700-500mb moisture is forecast to continue to stream over
the area. During the evening hours, shower and storm chances are
forecast to return as a shortwave moves through the northwest flow
aloft. Precipitation may form over the higher terrain in Eastern
Colorado and move east with the shortwave. The potential showers
could also just be virga with a lack of moisture near the surface
that would also inhibit severe weather.

Wednesday, some slight ridging is forecast to try and move over the
area which may warm temperatures a few degrees compared to Tuesday
with highs generally near or above 70. The bigger change is the
increase in winds as a surface low is forecast to develop in the lee
of the rockies through the day ahead of an advancing upper trough.
Winds are forecast to sustain around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30
to 40 mph. Critical fire weather is not expected at this time though
as RH is forecast to generally remain above 30% as some moisture
begins to advect in from the south. Will need to watch for a few
showers and storms from the higher terrain in Colorado again, but a
lack of overall synoptic forcing and with the low well to the west,
any precipitation will likely be light and non-impactful.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Over the past 24 hours, the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC-NH have started
agreeing a lot more about timing of the system on Thursday.
They now show a moderately strong upper-level trough moving
through the area Thursday evening/night. At 850 mb, all three
show a low pressure system moving across the area between 21Z
Thursday to 12Z Friday, suggesting another nocturnal event. SPC
has kept a 15% severe weather outlook for our eastern area for
this timeframe. There is good agreement that an 850 mb moist
conveyor belt will setup around Thursday 0-6Z, feeding Gulf
moisture into the eastern 1/3 to 2/3 of the CWA, and continue
until the cold front attached to the low moves through.
Confidence is increasing (~45%) for timing of this event; late
Thursday afternoon to Friday morning looks to bulk of the event.

This setup looks fairly similar to the event we had April 11th.
A dryline will form in the central CWA extending southward and
move east as the evening progress, firing storms as it does.
East of the dryline, moisture will be plentiful for storm growth
and to the west of the line, dry, breezy conditions are
expected.

There are PoPs ranging from 20-70+ covering nearly all of the CWA
Thursday night. However, much like APR 11 system, majority of the
precipitation will fall in the northern CWA.

There is a risk of brief elevated fire weather for portions of
Cheyenne county in Colorado. RH values look to drop near 20%
while southerly winds gust up to 25-30 kts. The dryline, once
again, will be the deciding factor to what potential hazards any
location could see. RH values have increased with this round of
guidance, significantly lowering the risk of fire weather
danger for Thursday.

Winds will generally be southerly, save for Friday when they
will be northwesterly behind the FROPA. Pressure changes with
this system do not seem to be as strong as what they were last
week, thus current confidence for High Wind is less than 10%.
Gusts seem to max out around 30-35 kts. The generally southerly
winds will allow us to keep temperatures a bit warmer overall.
Thursday is expected to see mid 70s to mid 80s. Friday through
Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s with a
few places seeing upper 30s Friday night.

A weak ridge looks to build in from the southeast Friday night
and Saturday morning which will clear out any remaining
precipitation. This happens just ahead of another low pressure
system that guidance is showing will impact the area around
Saturday night. Due to how far away the event is, climatology,
and forecast temperature trend, we cannot rule out snow showers
or severe weather moving over the area with this second system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

..Below Average Confidence in Wind Speed/Direction on Monday..

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals.. with cloud cover confined to mid-upper level
ceilings (~12-22 KFT AGL). Isolated to scattered high-based
showers (perhaps a storm) are possible in vicinity of either
terminal Monday afternoon, though.. confidence in convective
development/coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention
with the 06Z TAF issuance. Southerly winds will increase
overnight into Monday morning as the MSLP gradient tightens in
response to upstream pressure falls /lee cyclone development/ in
Colorado. The aforementioned lee cyclone will extend eastward
into/over western Kansas during the day on Monday.. in the form
of an inverted surface trough extending (roughly) from GLD-ADT-
MCK. Winds at both terminals will highly depend upon the precise
evolution of the cyclone and location/orientation of the
surface trough. As a result, confidence in wind speed and
direction is well below average during the day on Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BV