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000
FXUS62 KGSP 240226
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Southeast Coast will give way to a weak cold
front moving down from the north.  The North Carolina mountains
mainly near the Tennessee border will see rain showers late tonight
and Wednesday.  The weak front will scarcely affect temperatures
through mid week and then the front may come back northward as a
warm front on Friday. After that, expect a warmup through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1025 PM EDT Tuesday: Winds have diminished with still mainly
thin cirrus over the area. Guidance is in good agreement that a
short wave trough will swing across the Ohio Valley tonight and into
the central Appalachians Wednesday morning. An attendant weak
frontal boundary is also progged to push across the area during the
afternoon hours Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, surface high
pressure centered off the southeast coast will continue to keep
quiet conditions in place through tonight. The boundary layer,
however, will stay mixed overnight as the surface pressure gradient
increases with gusts returning to the higher elevations before
daybreak. This will allow for a rebound in overnight low
temperatures with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, which would be
10-15 degrees warmer compared to this morning. Cloud cover increases
during the early morning hours Wednesday with a band of showers
encroaching on the mountains from the west ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary. Showers will be likely across the mountains,
especially along the Tennessee border, during the morning. Coverage
farther east remains more uncertain as the better DPVA and forcing
will be displaced north of the area. With a lack of forcing and a
weak front, only isolated to scattered showers are anticipated east
of the mountains through the afternoon. High temperatures will
continue to rebound ahead of the front owing to influences from
compressional warming with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday: Mid level ridging and surface high pressure
will be in place across the area through the short range period
leading to typical spring conditions. A few showers will be possible
on Friday especially in the mountains as a system lifts northward
through the Plains states, but otherwise conditions should remain
dry. Amounts with this system will be very light.

Highs will be near normal on Thursday and then a little below normal
on Friday with more cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday: Mid level ridging will build across the region
for this weekend into early next week. The only chance of rain over
the weekend will be a few ridgetop showers in the higher elevations
of the mountains each afternoon. The next more general chance of
showers will be early next week.

Temperatures over the weekend will be near climo, then trending
above climo early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected at all terminals
through the forecast period. Cirrus already moving in ahead of an
approaching cold front. Expect it to thicken through the night with
mid clouds then low VFR near or after daybreak. A band of showers
will move into the mountains with the front then dissipate as they
move east. Showers most likely to affect KAVL, but only low VFR
expected, so PROB30 there. Elsewhere chance too low for TAF mention
at this time. Winds remain SW overnight with diminishing gusts this
evening. Winds pick up from the WSW after daybreak then turn NW
after FROPA during the afternoon with low end gusts possible. KAVL
will see S wind becoming NNW toward daybreak, then gusty NNW through
the day.

Outlook: Dry weather returns Thursday into this weekend, but this is
subject to change as a warm front lifts north of the area by
Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...RWH