Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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732 FXUS64 KHUN 280451 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 859 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 No significant changes made to the forecast for tonight. Surface high pressure off the Mid Atlantic will keep winds from the south/southeast overnight. While not as gusty, the tightened surface pressure gradient against the low in the Central Plains will keep winds elevated overnight. With that mixing, combined with the ridging aloft, temperatures should remain mild overnight dropping only into the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday Night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The East Coast high pressure system will continue to exert influence over the region on Sunday, while the western trough makes gradual advance eastward into the Plains. A robust pressure gradient will be maintained across the TN Valley, with gusty winds at times continuing, although wind speeds may be a bit lower than today. Late Sunday into Monday, the partially closed Great Plains trough will move northeastward and begin to phase with a trough advancing into the Pac NW and SW Canada. As it does, the trailing frontal boundary will edge eastward into the western TN Valley region. A band of rain with embedded thunderstorms ahead of the front may begin to move into western locations as early as Monday morning, but more likely in the afternoon. However, mid/upper dynamics will weaken as the front traverses the region, limiting support for thunderstorm organization. Likewise, instability will be limited with largely moist-adiabatic profiles and "skinny" vertical CAPE. Thus, it looks as though just general thunderstorm activity is favored at this time. Rainfall and any thunderstorm activity could reach a peak during the evening as the front begins to push into the area, with good chances for rain and a few thunderstorms continuing overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Minor Update (200 PM): Showers and storms will come to an end from west to east across the area early Tuesday as the shortwave lifts northeast and upper ridging begins to push east across the Deep South. South/southwesterly flow will keep a more tropical airmass in place through the remainder of the work week, and daily highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. A series of weaker disturbances will be embedded within the upper ridge, and will result in daily low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. Models show an upper low tracking over the northern Plains heading into the weekend, and a cold front will push south through the Midwest and into the mid MS River Valley. This system will result in an increase in shower/storm chances (40-50%) on Friday, with 20-40% chances continuing into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Mid/high clouds out of the south continue to gradually move over parts of the area heading into the overnight hrs. Sct cloud cover will linger for much of Sun, maintaining VFR conds thru the TAF period. SE winds near 7-8kt will also increase closer to 12-14kt with higher gusts Sun morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...09