Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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215 FXUS61 KILN 090145 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 945 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A surface low pressure center will cross the area underneath an eastward moving mid level shortwave tonight, creating another round of showers and thunderstorms. These storms will decrease but then re-fire along a trailing cold front later in the day Thursday, though with much less coverage and intensity than recent events. High pressure will provide cooler and dry weather to end of the work week before a fast moving system moving through the Great Lakes brings showers on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers are moving across portions of northern Kentucky this evening. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have also been present north of this area. Will see some additional rounds of showers and some thunderstorms move in overnight. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two, however overall severe threat has diminished. Per collaboration with surrounding offices and to focus on the areas where the heaviest rainfall is expected, trimmed back the flash flood watch to focus on the Tri-State including portions of southwest Ohio, northern Kentucky, and southeast Indiana. Cannot rule out some pockets of fog overnight and into the morning, however confidence was not high enough to keep in the forecast at this time with expected cloud cover. There will be a range in temperatures overnight with the boundary in place with lows ranging from the middle 50s north to the lower 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The cold front behind the surface low and upper s/w will clear our area early Thursday with cooler air holding daytime highs in the low to mid 60s north of I-70, low to mid 70s south to the Ohio River, and some upper 70s along the Ohio and in northern Kentucky. As cooler air in the north works in, the overturning associated with it could interact with the last s/w activity ahead of a l/w trough late in the day. Add in a trailing cold front laying out w-e in the center of the CWA and that brings another rain potential, moreso to the north. Models are a little too generous with rainfall on Thursday, and probably a little heavy handed regarding thunder prospects. Shaved back a little bit wrt pops, especially early but did not adjust the thunder chances. The trailing front will be more of a boundary that could continue to support shower activity as the l/w trough approaches from the northwest towards daybreak Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The l/w trough will slowly move east on Friday. Couldn`t remove the shower threat entirely but it`s quite muted and only expected to be some passing light showers if they do develop. A brief lull in pops Friday evening will end later overnight as a secondary reinforcing s/w tracks sw into northern OH early Saturday. This will generate a weak surface circulation and trailing cold front/windshift to create more showers and possibly some thunderstorms through evening. Decreasing clouds overnight with increasing heights will promote a drier period lasting through early Monday. In the cold air behind the front, temperatures will drop to the upper 40s and low 50s Thursday night, and a sharply cooler Friday with highs in the low 60s. Another cool night will see Saturday morning start out in the 45-50 range, with only slightly warmer highs in the 60s. One last cool night is in the offing for Saturday night as lows drop to the mid 40s. Highs will then begin to warm a little each day beginning Sunday. Upper level zonal flow through early next week will promote a slow modification of the airmass with daytime highs reaching back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Some embedded mid level energy will lead to some lower end chances for showers and a few thunderstorms both days. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible overnight. Expect activity to decrease late in the overnight hours and there will be the potential for some stratus and fog. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms will develop on Thursday, especially during the afternoon. Activity will decrease late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs possible into Thursday night into Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ077. KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ089>099. IN...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT Thursday for INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...