541
FXUS63 KIWX 291809
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
209 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a rumble of thunder possible west of US 31 this morning.

- Showers and a rumble of thunder possible this afternoon east of I-69.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms expected
  Thursday into Friday.

- Unseasonably warm through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Wrapped out upper low over SD will lift out into srn ON by late
tonight with cold front washing out through the wrn OH valley today.
Upstream band of showers/storms will trickle east into nwrn areas
around daybreak with a brief rumble of thunder possible. Otherwise
this is expected to rapidly decay ewd post sunrise through cntrl
zones. Thereafter some redevelopment expected this aftn far e/se
within wrn flank of departing theta-e ridge with a rumble possible
here. Expect most areas inbetween to end up mainly dry.

Weak high pressure follows Tue-early Thu along with height
amplification aloft ahead of vigorous nrn plains sys and will yield
warm temps near 80 Wed & Thu. Better defined cold front in
association with this sys looks to sweep through the lakes late
Thu/Fri with a decent looking chance of showers/storms. Otherwise
dry and mild next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

An upper level vort lobe lifting northeast across the Upper MS
Valley will continue to shift off to the northeast this evening.
The movement of this forcing will result in a slow eastward
advance of trailing cold front across the southern Great Lakes.
A fairly respectable low level moist tongue is preceding this
front into northeast Indiana. While mid level lapse rates are
meager, combination of sfc temperatures in mid-upper 70s and
this low level moist axis will produce surface based CAPEs on
the order of 500-1000 J/kg. This better instability should set
up just east of KFWA and thus will limit thunder mention to VCTS
in the 21Z-00Z timeframe. Storm development could also be aided
by a differential heating boundary setting up along IN/OH
stateline. Slow movement of this front should prolong rain
chances through around 03Z this evening. Conditions dry out from
west to east tonight with perhaps a brief period of some MVFR
cigs tonight near the cold front. No major weather concerns
anticipated for Tuesday with mostly clear skies and west-
northwest winds of around 10 knots.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Marsili