Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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346 FXUS64 KJAN 140001 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 701 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Tonight and Tuesday...A shortwave will slowly shift east from the central plains states into the Ohio River Valley tonight through Tuesday. This will prompt a surface low to likewise shift east from the plains into the Ohio River Valley, while dragging a weak cold front through the CWA on Tuesday. Ahead of this shortwave this evening and into tonight, a disturbance embedded in quasi-zonal flow will shift east through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will prompt showers and storms to develop and move east across the forecast area this evening into tonight. A "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms does exist across mainly western and southern portions of the CWA during this time. However, thanks to this morning`s convection, a frontal boundary has become stationary along the gulf coast. This is keeping ample deep moisture and instability from surging northward into the CWA. On top of that, this morning`s convection has essentially worked over the airmass over the CWA. While again, an isolated severe storm is possible tonight over western and southern portions of the area, where a combination of wind shear and limited instability reside, the greatest threat for severe storms will be south of the forecast area, and more along the gulf coast and offshore. That said, damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with any isolated severe storms. Earlier there was a concern for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over southern areas today through Tuesday morning. This threat too has been shunted south of the CWA along the aforementioned frontal boundary and warm sector, where the deeper moisture exists and likewise the higher rainfall rates. As a result, I`ve cancelled the Flash Flood Watch that was initially in effect for southern locations through Tuesday morning, and I`ve removed all mention of flash flooding from the HWO. Any flash flooding that may occur with tonight`s convection, will be very localized and limited to low- lying and poor drainage areas. Showers and isolated storms will continue to be possible into Tuesday as the main upper trough and the cold front moves through the region. Convection will steadily come to and end from west to east through the course of the afternoon as both features exit the region. Skies will also gradually clear from west to east as high pressure quickly build into the region heading into the Tuesday night period. With clouds departing, look for highs to warm into the low and middle 80s. /19/ Tuesday Night through next Monday...Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday the main trough will have passed through the area along with a weak shortwave. Expect a high pressure to begin to build into the area overnight, following the preceding showers during the afternoon and early evening Tuesday. Dry weather will ensue on Wednesday as the upper trough moves east. During this time expect winds to shift southwesterly as low level moisture begins to increase. Come Thursday, several rounds of shortwaves will begin to shoot across the area as chances for isolated and scattered showers and storms become increasingly possible Thursday evening overnight into Friday. This presents the best possibilities for strong to severe storms as a negatively tilted trough axis over the Southern Plains will send another shortwave and associated cold front through our area. Persistent heavy rain seems to be the primary risk associated with this event with flash flooding being possible through the weekend. Wet conditions may linger into the weekend as another shortwave will be possible however there isn`t much model consensus right now. As of now, we expect excessive rainfall products to be likely with possible 3-5 inches of rainfall from Thursday night through Monday with 2-3 inches possible Thursday into Friday. Locally higher amounts are possible. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Expect a general lowering of ceilings tonight with widespread MVFR/IFR cateories through much of the morning hours before mixing can bring back VFR categories by late Tue morning/afternoon. The most intense TSRA will stay south of the area this evening, then expect a few SHRA over mainly northern/eastern portions of the area Tuesday in association with the upper trough. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 65 83 63 84 / 70 30 0 0 Meridian 66 84 62 86 / 70 40 0 0 Vicksburg 66 84 62 86 / 60 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 85 64 88 / 80 50 0 0 Natchez 64 84 61 86 / 60 10 0 0 Greenville 67 82 64 84 / 70 20 0 0 Greenwood 67 82 63 83 / 60 40 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/KP/EC