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000
FXUS64 KLCH 120407
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1107 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Gusty NW winds have accompanied an otherwise nice day across the
area today as dry air advects across the region on northwesterly
flow behind a potent upper trough moving east of the lower MS
Valley. Frequent northwesterly gusts between 20 and 30 MPH have
been common, with a few gusts exceeding 40 MPH in the Acadiana
region earlier. Winds have been gradually decreasing from west to
east as surface high pressure builds into the area and the
gradient relaxes. Outside of the wind, conditions have been
pleasant as temperatures have warmed into the middle to upper 70s
under sunny skies.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Dry weather is expected to prevail through the short term period.
Dry northwest flow aloft will persist between the exiting upper
low and shortwave ridging over western TX. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will continue to build over the region tonight into
Friday, with winds lightening and becoming variable. From Friday
night into Saturday, the high will begin to shift east on
Saturday, with winds becoming southerly again.

Conditions will remain pleasant, with temperatures relatively
seasonable. Cool overnight lows can be expected tonight as winds
diminish under clear skies, with temperatures ranging from the
middle 40s across central LA to the lower 50s across lower SE TX.
Temperatures will rebound during the day Friday, with highs into
the upper 70s. A modest uptick in temperatures can be expected
toward the end of the short term period as southerly winds
develop.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Dry conditions will persist from Sunday into Monday, as shortwave
ridging aloft moves east over the area while southerly winds
across the region lead to an increase in low level moisture and
clouds. Temperatures each afternoon will climb into the lower to
middle 80s while overnight lows continue to moderate into the 60s.

By Tuesday, southwesterly flow will become established aloft as an
upper level trough lifts from the SW states into the central
plains. Surface cyclogenesis will develop over the plains,
enhancing the southerly winds across the area. As the low system
lifts toward the Great Lakes, shortwave energy trailing the main
low will move into the area, and this could potentially produce a
few showers along our northern CWA border from the Lakes region
into central LA. Moisture appears sufficient at this time (with
model progs suggesting PWATs between 1.6 and 1.8 inches) but
lift/instability could be somewhat meager. At this time, PoPs
remain too low to include mention, with the better rain chances
north of our area.

Moisture is expected to remain elevated through the latter part of
the long term, but forcing both at the surface and aloft look
limited so rain chances remain low from Wednesday into Thursday.
Southerly winds will continue in the low levels with surface high
pressure east of the area, and this will keep temperatures
slightly above normal with highs into the middle 80s and lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

No real change in the thinking as far as the aviation forecast
goes. Clear skies and light winds are occurring at all terminals
and this is expected to continue through the night into Friday as
high pressure and a dry air mass settles over the region. VFR
conditions to prevail during the period.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Gusty offshore winds will diminish overnight, veering northeast to
east on Friday as surface high pressure builds over the area.
Onshore flow will become reestablished on Saturday as the high
moves east. Southerly winds will strengthen by early next week as
the gradient tightens between high pressure to the east and low
pressure deepening over the plains.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  45  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  51  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  52  78  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07