Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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762 FXUS64 KLCH 022057 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 357 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 As of 330CDT we are seeing showers and storms begin to taper across the area, with a wake low forming over the northern tier of the CWA. We will continue to see tapering across the area this evening, however another round of showers and storms will ramp tomorrow morning thanks to yet another disturbance. Tomorrow night we shall see another lull in activity, which is likely to persist into Saturday afternoon before isolated showers return to the northern half of the CWA. While rainfall amounts tomorrow and Saturday are not expected to be as copious as what we have seen today, we continue to stress that any additional rainfall amounts will exacerbate current flooding. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The long-term portion of the forecast period begins with the potential for yet another wet day, especially for the far nrn areas, as we`ll see the interaction of an approaching/passing mid- level shortwave with a stalled/decaying sfc boundary over the region along with abundant Gulf moisture. Best rain chances will come during the late morning/afternoon hours along with daytime heating before lift wanes as the disturbance aloft departs. For Monday, as the mid/upper-level trof pushes ewd out of the Rockies, another weaker disturbance is progged to slip past the area, with best dynamics staying to our north. However, could see enough lift to go along with daytime heating to produce widely scattered convection across our nern zones. Thereafter, the remainder of the forecast period looks dry as a more zonal flow is progged to develop aloft, with weak capping/limited moisture aloft likely prohibiting convective development. Expect to see a gradual warming trend through the long term as temps creep upward to mins in the lower 70s/highs in the lower 90s. 25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Not a lot has changed in the thinking for the aviation forecast. Low clouds will continue to form over the next few hours with MVFR conditions possibly down to IFR conditions. After 02/11z or so, the forecast will depend on how the MCS develops over Texas and how it moves across the forecast area. At this time will cover this with TEMPO for storms at KBPT by 02/14z and PROB30 at all remaining terminals starting at KLCH/KAEX at 02/15z and starting at KLFT/KARA at 02/16z. If the storm complex does make it through, expect IFR conditions with low visibility from heavy rainfall along with gusty winds. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Isolated to slight showers and storms to continue across the coastal waters this evening. We will see a brief lull in activity overnight before another round tomorrow morning. Then another quiet period starting tomorrow night. No Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 80 64 85 / 40 70 20 30 LCH 70 81 70 84 / 50 60 0 10 LFT 72 82 70 86 / 50 60 10 10 BPT 70 82 71 84 / 50 60 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ027>032-141. TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...87